LA vs. Orange County: Where’s homebuying slowing faster?

Homebuying is rapidly cooling in Los Angeles and Orange counties with 32% fewer purchases in September than a year earlier as house payments jumped roughly 48% or more.

The two counties had 7,501 closed transaction for single-family homes and condos, existing and new construction —  down 3,727 from September 2021, according to data from CoreLogic. Soaring mortgage rates, high prices, and economic uncertainty have scared off house hunters.

Let’s see how the cooldown varies, geographically speaking, starting with total sales for the month of September.

Los Angeles County had 5,213 sales. That’s down 7% in a month. Since 1988, sales have fallen on average by 10% in September. It’s also 33% lower in a year.

Orange County? 2,288 sold — down 10% in a month, equal to the 34-year average for any September. Purchases are 34% lower in a year.

Next, consider how prices moved.

In Los Angeles County, the $806,000 median was down 2% in a month vs. flat on average since 1988.  The median’s 1% higher in a year.

Orange County? $950,250 median —  down 4% in a month where a 1% drop is the norm. Median is 7% higher in the past year.

Compare those changes to the six-county region where 16,326 residences sold,  down 11% in a month and 34% lower in a year. The regionwide median price was $715,000 —  down 1% in a month and 5% higher in a year.

Payment pain

Pricier financing is clearly a culprit.

The 30-year mortgage averaged 6.11% in September vs. 2.9% 12 months earlier. Here’s how my trusty spreadsheet found that rate jump hitting a typical homebuyer’s house payment …

Los Angeles County: $3,912 monthly for the $806,000 median vs. $2,647 a year ago —  48% higher, and that’s assuming a house hunter puts down $161,200 or 20%.

Orange County: $4,612 monthly $950,250 median vs. $2,964 a year ago —  56% higher after putting 20% —  $190,050 — down.

Southern California: $3,470 on $715,000 vs. $2,264 a year ago —  53% higher. Downpayment? $143,000 or 20%.

Single-family homes

How detached, existing housing fared for the month.

Sales: Los Angeles County had 3,770 sold —  down 5% in a month and 32% lower in a year. Orange County? 1,480 sold —  down 8% in a month and 32% lower in a year.

Prices: Los Angeles County’s $870,000 median was down 1% in a month and 2% higher in a year. Orange County? $1,100,000 median —  down 2% in a month but 8% higher in a year.

In Southern California, 11,366 single-family homes sold —  down 10% in a month and 34% lower in a year. Prices? $760,000 median —  flat for the month but 4% higher in a year.

Condos

Here’s how condominiums and townhomes sold in September.

Sales: Los Angeles County had 1,207 sold —  down 14% in a month and 38% lower in a year. Orange County? 622 sold —  down 14% in a month and 41% lower in a year.

Prices: Los Angeles County’s $650,000 median was down 3% in a month and 2% higher in a year. Orange County? $675,000 median —  down 4% in a month but 5% higher in a year.

In Southern California, 3,318 condos sold —  down 14% in a month and 38% lower in a year. Prices? $605,000 median —  down 4% in a month but 3% higher in a year.

New homes

A look at what builders sold in September.

Sales: Los Angeles County had 238 sold —  up 3% in a month and 23% lower in a year. Orange County? 186 sold —  down 8% in a month and 13% lower in a year.

Prices: Los Angeles County’s $872,250 median was down 11% in a month and 5% higher in a year. Orange County? $1,024,500 median —  up 4% in a month but 12% lower in a year.

Builder share: Los Angeles County’s 4.6% last month vs. vs. 4% 12 months earlier. Orange County? 8.1% last month vs. vs. 6% 12 months earlier.

In Southern California, 1,644 new homes sold —  down 7% in a month and 17% lower in a year. Prices? $680,000 median —  down 6% in a month and 10% higher in a year.

Builder’s slice of six-county sales? 10.1% last month vs. vs. 8% 12 months earlier.

Editor’s note: After 31 years of tracking local home sales for the media, DQNews (formerly DataQuick) has retired. The monthly data on local closed home sales used by the Southern California News Group is now analyzed by CoreLogic, which previously also gathered the transaction numbers being studied. Statistically speaking, we believe the transition will not create any material variances in the data.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]