Luis Arraez Pursues .400 Batting Average Amid Key 100 Game Milestone In July

Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez’s pursuit of becoming the first qualified ball player since Ted Williams in 1941 to achieve a .400 batting average during the regular season has garnered renewed affection for a once indispensable statistic. With every hit, Arraez emboldens fans whose allegiance to baseball’s spirituality is in stark contrast to the analytically driven philosophies of major league front offices. At the outset of July, Arraez is quickly approaching an important milestone in his pursuit of a .400 batting average.

According to Sarah Langs of MLB.com and the Elias Sports Bureau, there have only been two qualified ball players since Williams’ 1941 season who have carried a .400 batting average into at least 100 of their ball club’s games. On September 4, 1980, George Brett played in 99 of the Kansas City Royals’ 134 ball games and finished the day with a .401 batting average. Brett concluded the season with a .390 batting average and his second of three batting titles for the first ballot Hall of Famer. The 1980 American League Most Valuable Player had missed significant time throughout the season with ankle, hand, and heel injuries while accumulating 515 plate appearances over 117 ball games.

John Olerud had played in 105 of the Toronto Blue Jays’ 107 ball games through August 2, 1993. In a 4-0 victory against the New York Yankees, Olerud went 1-for-4 and finished the day with a .400 batting average. By the season’s end, Olerud had achieved a .363 batting average and his only batting title over a 17-year major league career. After the first three months of the season, Arraez played in 77 of the Marlins’ 83 ball games and has posted a .390 batting average. Weather permitting, the Marlins’ 100^th ball game of the season will be played on July 22^nd at loanDepot park against the Colorado Rockies.

Arraez is not only chasing one of baseball’s holy grails but also paying homage to an overlooked art form. The splendor of Arraez begins with a quiet confidence that emphasizes contact with a disdain for strikeouts. Simplistic in theory but complex in application, Arraez has been called a “throwback” or “time machine” ball player. His style of play is vastly different than the current emphasis on power which is accompanied by a proliferation in strikeouts. The ill-informed have labeled Arraez as a “singles hitter” in a derisive tone, but those who have been paying close attention know that he is an artisan whose style of play is drawing favorable comparisons to the likes of Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, and Ichiro Suzuki.

A left-handed hitting savant, Arraez’s short, compact swing is complemented by a low strikeout percentage. As a member of the Minnesota Twins last season, Arraez won the American League’s batting title with a .316 batting average. The major league batting average was .243, the lowest since the 1968 season when the batting average was .237 according to FanGraphs. Arraez’s .390 batting average is even more astonishing given the current .248 major league batting average through the conclusion of June.

Arraez struck out 43 times over 603 plate appearances last season. The major league strikeout percentage was 22.4%. His 7.1% strikeout percentage was the lowest in Major League Baseball among 130 ball players who qualified based on minimum plate appearances according to FanGraphs. Strikeouts also exceeded hits in Major League Baseball for the fifth consecutive season. Prior to the start of ball games on July 1^st, Arraez has only struck out 17 times over 326 plate appearances and currently has the lowest strikeout percentage in Major League Baseball among 154 qualified ball players at 5.2%.

Arraez will never be mistaken for a Statcast darling as he only had 18 barrels over 507 batted ball events last season (3.6 %) with an average launch angle of 12.9 degrees and exit velocity of 88.9 miles per hour according to Baseball Savant. Through June 30^th, Arraez has accumulated six barrels over 280 batted ball events (2.1%) with an average launch angle of 10.9 degrees and exit velocity of 88.6 miles per hour. His 23.9% hard hit percentage is in the bottom 2% of the league.

It is unfathomable to think a ball player can be criticized for hitting too many singles amid an explosion in strikeouts. The true brilliance of Arraez is evident in his meticulous approach to hitting and how quickly he adjusts with every pitch. As the calendar turns to July, Arraez has accumulated 115 hits with 82.6% (95) being singles. According to data collected using Baseball-Reference, there have been 12 occasions where a ball player has won a batting title with at least 80% of their hits being singles between the 1941-2022 seasons.

Arraez’s pursuit of a revered accomplishment has some questioning its statistical relevance given how analytics is used to evaluate offensive performances through advanced metrics such as Wins Above Replacement (WAR), On-Base Percentage (OBP), Slugging Percentage (SLG), and On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS). Context neutral statistics adjusted for ballpark and era factors such as On-Base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) offer tremendous depth and perspective whereas the inherent flaws of the batting average statistic are evident as it equally values all hits. Regardless of analytics, many are celebrating Arraez as the resurrection of the contact hitter who isn’t beholden to exit velocities, launch angles, and the three outcomes that have dominated the sport in recent years: strikeouts, base on balls, and home runs.

Luis Arraez’s impressive commitment to the art of hitting has conjured optimistic feelings in his pursuit of a .400 batting average. As he continues to embrace the challenges of playing for a surprisingly competitive ball club in the Miami Marlins and pursuing unprecedented excellence this summer, expect Arraez to maintain an unwavering commitment to fundamentals. True credence will be given to his pursuit only if he can maintain a .400 batting average after the Marlins’ 100^th ball game of the season in late July.