Mailbag: How concerned are Mariners with Jarred Kelenic’s recent cold streak?

The Twitter mailbag returns with a power presence that is unaffected by the marine layer. Besides, sunny and warmer days are ahead, well, before the inevitable smoke in August and September comes rolling in to cause misery.

But until then, the mailbag is going to find its in All-Star form.

As always, these are real questions submitted by the midsummer classic voters known as my Twitter followers.

How much concern is there that Kelenic is backsliding to the player he was last year? — @KaumansTroy

I don’t know if I’d use the word “concern” from the Mariners about Jarred Kelenic’s recent stretch of games. Maybe some slight unease about the swing-and-miss issues and lack of consistent production.

I think most people in the organization and around baseball figured there would be a period of time where the league would adjust to Kelenic’s hot start to the season, and he would need to readjust to the changes that teams made against him.

Over his last 11 games, he posted a .154/.267/.282 slash line with six hits in 45 plate appearances, including two doubles, a homer, three RBI, six walks, 19 strikeouts and a stolen base. But over that 11-game span, he has 20 balls in play that had average of 89.9-mph exit velocity and a 40% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.

For the 2023 season, he has an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph, a 10.1% barrel rate and 48% hard-hit rate. During that stretch, he’s had a 55% ground-ball rate and pulled 60% of the balls in play. Neither is ideal for his swing and approach.

Of the 183 pitches he saw in that span, only 54 were a two-seam or four-seam fastball. The rest were considered off-speed, including 63 sliders. This isn’t a new development. But against those 54 fastballs, most of them at or above the top of the zone, Kelenic had a .083 batting average with just one single on five balls in play, 10 called strikes, 12 foul balls and six whiffs.

Really, it’s pitch selection and finding hitter’s counts to do damage. Twice in Wednesday’s loss, Kelenic had a 2-1 count and took pitches that he thought were balls only to see home plate umpire Sean Barber incorrectly call them strikes. So instead of having a 3-1 count, Kelenic had a 2-2 count. Big deal?

Well in his career, Kelenic has had 121 plate appearances where he had a 2-2 count, they ended up resulting in a .149/.284/.280 slash line with 26 hits including nine doubles, a triple, four homers, 32 walks and 110 strikeouts. In 65 career plate appearances where he got to a 3-1 count, Kelenic has a .150/.477/.400 slash line — yes, a .477 on-base percentage. He has six hits, including three homers, 25 walks and only 13 strikeouts.

The Mariners and Kelenic believe that the changes he’s made this past offseason allow for him to work back out of these sorts of slumps because he wants to use the entire field and is more capable of doing it.

There has been more open frustration following failed plate appearances from him reminiscent from years past. But he’s still only 24 and it’s not an uncommon reaction.  

If this were to continue into the next 10-12 games and Kelenic really started to react negatively to the results, it would be a cause for concern.

Have the Mariners lost their opportunity to trade Kelenic? Batting .189 in the last few weeks after he claims to have fixed himself doesn’t seem like he’s changed much. — @seattle_wayne

I think people that have followed Kelenic’s career closely would say that he’s changed a lot. He wasn’t capable of having the hot start to the 2023 season with his old approach and swing. Over his first 52 games, he produced a .283/.340/.524 slash line with 14 doubles, a triple, 10 homers, 26 RBI, 16 walks, 64 strikeouts and seven stolen bases. He’s never had a stretch of 50-plus games like that in his career. So that’s a change.

Also, Kelenic never proclaimed he was fixed. Nobody in the Mariners said he was fixed. They know too well that baseball doesn’t allow for such things, particularly for younger players. When you think you’ve fixed an issue to find success, MLB teams find a new weakness to exploit.

The adjustments are endless.

I don’t know that the Mariners were looking for opportunities to trade Kelenic once he got off to a hot start. They were open to listening to offers last season and even in the offseason. But multiple MLB sources said they would only part with Kelenic in a trade package if they were getting a position player back in return with multiple years of club control (e.g., Bryan Reynolds).

They wouldn’t sell low.

Realistically, he has more value to them as a player than as a trade chip. If he could produce somewhere near the level of the first two months, it would be more valuable than what he could get from a trade market that is low on sellers and filled with buyers. He has four-plus years more of club control and won’t hit arbitration eligibility until 2026.

Do you think Scott should stick up for his players more when an ump is off? Does getting tossed help? — @Nick30061950

Well given the state of umpiring, Mariners manager Scott Servais would have to be ejected every night if an umpire is “off.” Being at the park, I can tell you that ROOT Sports doesn’t always show the jawing from the dugout about balls and strikes. It’s pretty constant from the Mariners.

But getting ejected to stick up for your players is little bit of “eyewash,” particularly if it goes against your typical personality. Remember when John McLaren had his postgame rant in 2008? He was calm and collected and waited for reporters and the cameras to get in there before exploding into an expletive-filled tirade that was more eye-rolling to the players than inspiring.

If Servais suddenly turned into the 2022-version of Aaron Boone and go on a personal crusade about the strike zone, his players would be like, “What the hell is he doing and why is he doing it?”

For the record, Boone and David Bell lead MLB with four ejections this year. There are five managers with three ejections and eight managers, including Servais with two.

Now, if I was managing. I might make it through half the games without getting ejected, depending on how many times Dan Iassogna, CB Bucknor and Angel Hernandez had my games.  

What is Servais’ fascination with Matt Brash other than K’s? — @martybrown4

Strikeouts are the fascination. There is no better result from a relief pitcher than striking out a batter. None. It means the ball didn’t get in play. There is no chance for an error. There is no chance for a random baseball oddity. It’s simply, have a seat.

That’s why Servais loves Brash because he strikes out hitters at a ridiculous rate — 17.6 per nine innings. He’s struck out 40% of the hitters he’s faced. Yes, he’s had some bad luck and looked sped up in certain leverage situations. But the possibility of a strikeout in a relief situation, particularly with runners on base, will always be the preferred outcome.