March Madness 2023 upset picks: Predicting every First Round upset

Head coach Tony Bennett, Virginia Cavaliers. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)

It wouldn’t be March Madness without some upsets. Let’s take a look at all of the upsets we could see in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Rejoice college basketball fans! March Madness has arrived and we are just days away from the start of the first round on Thursday afternoon. With 32 games over the span of 48 hours, we have plenty of upset potential in a year that has been extremely unpredictable in the world of college basketball.

One of the keys to success in filling out your bracket is finding those key first-round upsets that always happen and blow up the tournament. Let’s go region-by-region and lay out the upsets to watch for in the Round of 64, beginning in the South Region.

March Madness Upsets – South Region

No. 12 Charleston over No. 5 San Diego State

Few teams in the country are hotter than the Cougars, who won their final 10 games to snag the CAA’s autobid. Charleston was actually ranked for several weeks in January as they built up a 31-win season behind a high-flying offense that averaged over 80 points per game.

The unlucky 5-seed to draw the Cougars is San Diego State, which won the rugged Mountain West regular season and conference tournament titles but has underwhelmed in March over the past few years. Pat Kelsey’s team is playing with confidence and can send the Aztecs out early once again.

No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia

Teams that play slow-paced defensive styles are automatically in play as upset victims due to their preferred tempo. Virginia is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 360th in KenPom’s tempo metric, and they have actually been playing pretty poorly down the stretch.

First-round foe Furman hasn’t been to the dance since 1980 but the Paladins have plenty of experience with deep runs in the SoCon Tournament over the past several years. The Paladins have the nation’s 33rd most efficient offense according to KenPom and will put the ball in the basket enough to outlast the Pack Line defense and advance to the Round of 32.