Memphis vs. Houston prediction and odds for Sunday, February 19 (Tigers undervalued)

The two top teams in the American Athletic Conference face off on Sunday in Houston, as Kelvin Sampson’s No. 2 Houston Cougars host the Memphis Tigers and head coach Penny Hardaway.

Houston is 24-2 on the season, coming off a road win against the SMU Mustangs in its last game.

The Tigers, who are 20-6 overall and 10-3 in the AAC, come into this game on a three-game winning streak.

This is the first time these teams are playing this season, and they have another matchup in Memphis scheduled for March 5.

With a win, Houston may regain the No. 1 spot in the country after Purdue lost back-to-back games this week and No. 1 Alabama lost to Tennessee on Wednesday.

Here are the odds and a pick for this matchup:

Memphis vs. Houston odds, spread and total

Memphis vs. Houston prediction and pick

The Cougars are as dominant as any team in the country, but I feel like they are a little overvalued against a solid Memphis team.

Hardaway’s group ranks 46th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage, and it’s 22nd in points per game this season. The Cougars are eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, but I don’t think they will completely shut down the Memphis attack.

These teams play very contrasting styles, as Houston is 347th in the country in adjusted tempo and the Tigers come in at 13th. Memphis is going to try to get out and run, and if it succeeds, it may be able to hang around with a deliberate Cougars offense.

SMU is one of the worst teams in the AAC, and it stayed within 15 against Houston in the Cougars’ last game. Houston has wins by less than 14 points against Wichita State, Cincinnati, UCF and South Florida since the start of the new year.

This line is a little disrespectful to the Tigers, and I think they keep this game close.

—

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.