NBA free agency preview: Big names should stay put, but what about VanVleet and the Raptors?

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The big North American holidays don’t arrive until Saturday in Canada and Tuesday in the U.S., but expect early fireworks come 6 p.m. Friday. That’s when NBA free agency kicks off — a far more civilized time than than Midnight July 1 staple the league long went with. Here’s a breakdown of what promises to be a zany time:

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WHO HAS THE MOST CAP SPACE?

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The teams that can shake up the market are as follows:

Houston Rockets: Roughly $61 million U.S. to spend

San Antonio Spurs: Just shy of $40 million

Sacramento Kings: About $35 million

Indiana Pacers/Detroit Pistons/Utah Jazz: Between $28-32 million.

Orlando Magic: Nearly $24 million.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: Nearly $17 million.

(Utah had more, but took on forward John Collins from Atlanta this week. The Kings opened up more room with a cap dump of Richaun Holmes).

WHO ELSE CAN AT LEAST MAKE A SMALL SPLASH?

12 teams can choose to offer up to a four-year deal to a free agent at just over $12 million per season. That applies to teams, including the Raptors, who are over the salary cap but under the luxury-tax line. Fewer than a dozen teams will actually utilize this because other moves will put them into the luxury tax and there are new, punitive restrictions set to arrive with the NBA’s newly ratified collective bargaining agreement. The restrictions are so severe they will basically act as a hard salary cap and several teams have already been making moves to divest future salary commitments.

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WHO ARE THE TOP AVAILABLE FREE AGENTS?

FORMER ALL-STARS

James Harden

Draymond Green

Kyrie Irving

Khris Middleton (expected to stay with Bucks)

Fred VanVleet

Russell Westbrook

Brook Lopez

TOP ROLE PLAYERS

Kyle Kuzma

Jakob Poeltl

Jerami Grant

Bruce Brown

D’Angelo Russell

Christian Wood

Harrison Barnes

Grant Williams (restricted)

Austin Reaves (restricted)

Cameron Johnson (restricted)

Rui Hachimura (restricted)

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Dillon Brooks

Jordan Clarkson

Reggie Jackson

Caris LeVert

Seth Curry

Max Strus

Gabe Vincent

Jevon Carter

RECENT BIG MOVES

Bradley Beal to Phoenix

Chris Paul to Golden State

Kristaps Porzingis to Boston

Collins to Utah

Marcus Smart to Memphis

Jordan Poole to Washington

KINGS OF THE RUMOUR MILL

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Portland’s Damian Lillard

Toronto’s Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby

Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine

Atlanta’s DeJuante Murray

Clevleand’s Jarrett Allen

Philadelphia’s Tobias Harris

New York’s RJ Barrett

New Orleans’ Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?

Don’t hold us to it, but we expect to see Harden, Irving, Green and Middleton stay with their current teams.

Lopez and VanVleet are a bit dicier: Milwaukee and Toronto would be the respective favourites, but both playes could be tempted by literally greener pastures.

Toronto is in a Catch-22 situation with VanVleet: It wouldn’t be wise to give him a long-term deal given his size, mileage and age, but they have no alternative at point guard, with the weakest crop of guards in the entire NBA left behind should he bolt.

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That would make players like Jevon Carter or Gabe Vincent interesting. Both are 27, both can shoot the three (Carter even hit 42% for the Bucks and also is a dogged defender). Vincent gets all the hype and is the flavour of the month because he just started for a Miami team that made the NBA Finals, but Carter is a career 40% outside shooter (vs. 34% for Vincent) and arguably a better defender, though he’s smaller. Carter also has a clear advanced stats edge.

Brown helped the Nuggets win the title, but can get more than double somewhere else and isn’t expected back.

And what of Westbrook? He wants to stay with the Clippers, but they can’t offer him as much as someone else. And their cap sheet is the most expensive in the league.

Most of the restricted free agents should stay put.

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