New Mexico vs. Boise State prediction and odds for Friday, January 20 (Trust Lobos at home)

The marquee matchup of the condensed Friday night slate goes down in “The Pit” when Boise State travels to face New Mexico.

These are two teams that you need to keep an eye on come March with Boise State tops in the Mountain West so far at 5-1 in league play while New Mexico welcomes the Broncos with a 17-2 record, including a recent road win at San Diego State.

Can the Lobos keep it up and snap Boise State’s five game winning streak?

Here are the odds for this late night showdown:

New Mexico vs. Boise State odds, spread and total

New Mexico vs. Boise State prediction and pick

Boise State got Marcus Shaver back which should continue to keep this team at an elite level, but I think the team is going to run into a buzzsaw in New Mexico.

For starters, all units have played very similar levels in Mountain West play when you filter their adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers on KenPom, except for the Boise State offense which is playing the best of any MWC unit. The team is shooting nearly 43% from beyond the arc.

The team wants to play a methodical pace and in the half court I believe it struggles continue on the road against a strong perimeter defense in the Lobos who have held teams below 31% from 3 on the year.

Not to mention, the Lobos are a great defensive rebounding team (33rd in the country) and love to push the pace. While Boise State has handled fast paced teams like UNLV and Utah State this season, winning both by double digits, this Lobos team is a different beast at home who have a distinct home court advantage at The Pit.

New Mexico’s ball handlers between Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn can push the pace in this game and give this Boise State defense some issues inside, who are middle of the pack in terms of interior defense both in terms of shot profile and field goal percentage allowed at the rim.

These are two tournament teams, and this game should be tight, but ultimately, I’m siding with the home team to pull away late. Keep an eye on Boise State’s conference free throw defense (not a real thing) as teams are shooting below 61% from the charity stripe against them. UNM is a credible FT shooting team at nearly 73% on the year.

Give me the Lobos at home.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.