New Report Shows Recent Increase In College Completion Rates

The latest national figures show that the six-year college completion rate increased by 1.2 percentage points over last year. According to the just-released Completing College report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC), the national six-year completion rate for students who entered college in fall 2015 stands at 62.2%.

This marks the third year in a row where the national completion rate has topped 60%. One of the more noteworthy results this year is that the completion rate for students who started their higher education careers in community colleges showed a 1.5% increase over the prior year, the largest gain of any sector.

“Students who started college six years ago have been completing degrees and certificates at higher rates than in recent years,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, in the NSCRC press release. “This broad measure of performance for higher education as a nationwide system, including transfers among two- and four-year schools of all kinds, shows long-term improvements for students and colleges alike, gains that took hold mostly in the pre-pandemic period.”

The national completion rate reported by the NSCRC includes all students who enter postsecondary education for the first time during a given year. It counts students enrolling full-time or part-time at two-year or four-year institutions, and then completing a degree or certificate at any U.S. degree-granting institution within six years. It also includes those students who complete a credential after they transfer, not just those who complete at their starting institution. 

Thus, the results are not the same as the six-year rate for earning a baccalaureate degree. If a student starts his or her education at a two-year school and then earns either an AA or BA degree, NSCRC treats that student as a completer. Likewise, if a student starts at a four-year college and finishes with either an AA or BA, that student is also counted as a completer.

The report therefore captures the diverse pathways to postsecondary completion achieved by today’s students, who increasingly transfer between institutions and across state lines, stop-out of college and then re-enter, and shift between part-time and full-time status.

Completion Rates By Sector

When comparing completion rates by the type of institution where students begin their studies, stark differences emerge.

• For students starting at four-year public schools, 69% eventually earn a degree in six years either at the original school or a subsequent one.
• For those starting at a private, nonprofit four-year institution, 78.2% earn a degree in six years.
• Only 46.4% of students beginning their studies at private, for-profit institutions finish within six years.
• For students first entering public, two-year colleges, 42.2% earn a degree in six years.

Completion Rates By Student Groups

Race/Ethnicity: Completion rates increased for White, Black, and Latinx students this year. The largest increase was for Black students (+1.9 percentage points). White and Latinx student completion rates improved 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points respectively, while the rate for Asian students increased by only .3 percentage points.

Age: Adult learners – those who were older than 24 at the time they began college – saw a 2.5% increase in six-year completion rates. That was the largest increase among students of different ages. Traditional college-age students (i.e., 20 years or younger) have higher completion rates than older students, but their year-over year improvement in graduation rate was only .9 percentage points.

The report also noted that the composition of college students by age is gradually shifting. Of the 2015 entering cohort, 84.4% were traditional age students, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the 2014 cohort.

Gender: The six-year completion rate for male and female adult learners grew at virtually equal rates. The female rate increased 2.7 percentage points to 48.2% and the male rate increased 2.5 percentage points to 50.7%. However, the overall completion rate for male students is far lower than for female students (58.6% vs. 65.4%).

Completion Rates By State

This year’s improved rates were seen in most states. For 32 of the 46 states reporting sufficient data, the completion rate increased at least one percentage point. Last year, only 12 states achieved that level of improvement.

The completion rates decreased by at least one percentage point in only three states this year (Idaho, Oregon and Tennessee) compared with eight states last year.

The five states with the largest improvement in completion rates were:

• Nevada (4.6 percentage points). However, Nevada still had the second lowest statewide completion rate in the nation at 44.5%.
• Utah (3.4 percentage points)
• Alaska (3.3 percentage points). Alaska still had the nation’s lowest completion rate at 35.2%.
• Missouri (3.2 percentage points)
• Hawaii (3 percentage points)

This year’s report brings welcome news on several fronts.

• First, any increase in graduation rates – even a modest one – is encouraging. What might account for the uptick is not clear, although the report includes the observation that compared to prior cohorts, a larger share of fall 2015 entering students started at public four-year institutions while a smaller share started at community colleges and private for-profit four-year institutions, the two sectors with the lowest completion rates. The 2015 cohort also had a larger share of traditional age students, who finish college at higher rates than older students.
• Second, the fact that for students starting at community college the completion rate increased 1.5 percentage points is particularly good to see, given that community colleges were the only higher education sector to experience a drop in completion rates last year.
• Third, completion rates increased by a percentage point or more for all major racial and ethnic groups (except Asian students), with Black students seeing the largest increase.
• Finally, the improvements were widespread regionally, with over two-thirds of the states seeing at least a one percentage point improvement. That’s in marked contrast from the prior year, when only 12 states made similar gains. What’s more, five states actually reversed their declines in completion rates from last year.

About NSCRC

The NSCRC is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. It collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations to gather accurate longitudinal data that can be used to guide educational policy decisions.

NSCRC analyzes data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollment in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2018.

The latest report is the tenth in NSCRC’s Completion College series.