After 18 months in retreat, there are signs New Zealand’s house prices may have bottomed out.
Data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) released on Tuesday show a modest uptick of 1.4 per cent on the median value of homes sold last month.
The national median house price was measured at $NZ775,000 ($A716,000) in March, up ever so slightly from $NZ765,000 ($A707,000) in February.
REINZ chief executive Jen Baird said she wasn’t yet confident the trough had been reached.
“We really only know that we have reached the bottom of the market when we’re looking at it in the rear vision mirror,” she said.
“There is no denying the economic challenges that continue to impact the housing market this year.”
Fuelled by basement low interest rates, house prices peaked in November 2021 at a median price of $NZ925,000 ($A854,000).
The peak-to-trough fall of 16.8 per cent correlates almost exactly to the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle, which began in October 2021 and shifted the official cash rate (OCR) from 0.25 per cent to 5.25 per cent.
With inflation running at 7.2 per cent, Kiwis are struggling through the same cost of living challenges that Australians are.
“People start to look at the economic conditions around them and make choices about whether they want to take any kind of risk,” Ms Baird said.
“And with talk of a recession, it makes people really consider whether now is a good time.”
Ms Baird also said Kiwis tended to stay out of the housing market during election years due to the uncertainty of the result.
The people getting involved are those “trading up or retiring to the beach” and first home buyers.
“What we hear from agents across the country is that occupiers moving to another owner-occupied house are predominant force in the market,” Ms Baird said.
“And more activity around first home buyers, people are looking at this market and going ‘interest rates are still really challenging … but those prices are something that I feel really good about’.”
The steepest drop-offs in the country over the past 18 months have been in Wellington (down 24.8 per cent) and Auckland (down 22 per cent).
Auckland’s median house price fell marginally by 0.4 per cent in March but stayed just above the magic million mark, at $NZ1,000,600 ($A924,000).
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