The 2022-23 season has been a disappointing one for the North Carolina Tar Heels, who came into the season as the No. 1 team in the country.
UNC is just 16-10 on the season, including an abysmal 2-6 record on the road heading into Sunday’s game against in-state rival NC State.
The Wolfpack are one of the best home teams in the country, going 13-1 this season, and they’re looking to pick up another home win to improve to 21-7 in the 2022-23 season on Sunday.
UNC has the top line talent with Caleb Love, RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, but the team has been brutal to bet on, going 8-18 ATS this season.
Here are the odds and a pick for this Sunday matchup:
North Carolina vs. NC State odds, spread and total
North Carolina Tar Heels @ North Carolina State Wolfpack | Current Best Odds
North Carolina vs. NC State prediction and pick
Both of these teams have high-powered offenses this season, ranking 42nd (UNC) and 34th (NC State) in points per game.
The key difference? The Heels are a significantly worse defensive team, ranking 261st in opponent points per game and 131st in opponent effective field goal percentage.
While the Wolfpack aren’t an elite defensive team, they do defend the 3-ball well, limiting opponents to a 30.9 percent clip from deep this season.
I’m going to bet the Wolfpack on the moneyline here, as they’ve gone 6-8-2 ATS when favored by 2.5 or more points, but they are money at home, winning 13 of their 14 games there.
The Tar Heels are getting some love for how they were expected to play this season, but this team has been terrible in terms of covering the spread and winning on the road.
Lay the juice with the Wolfpack to win this ACC battle.
ML: +120
NCST -2.5, O/U 154.5
ML: -145
Consensus betting odds
- Pick & odds as of February 19, 2023, 10:08 AM
BetMGM
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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