Northern Europe: Covid-19 Cases, Hospitalizations Rising Again Raising Concerns Of New Wave

Things are looking up again in Northern Europe, but not in a good way. As the weather has been getting cooler and drier in that part of the world, something not so cool has been happening with reported Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations. Over the past few weeks, these numbers have been rising, as Helen Colis recently reported for POLITICO. For example, from about the second to the third week in September, Belgium has had a 17 percent jump in reported Covid-19 cases and a four percent rise in reported Covid-19-related hospitalizations. Meanwhile, Denmark had a six percent bump up in reported Covid-19 hospitalizations, and the United Kingdom has had a 13 percent upswing in the number of reported new Covid-19 cases and a 17 percent upswing in the number of reported Covid-19 hospitalizations.

Will this be another here we go again moment, in the words of The Weeknd? Throughout the course of the pandemic, nearly every Covid-19 upswing in Europe has been like a trailer for the movie Grown Ups, a preview of bad things to come in the U.S. Increases in Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations in Europe have typically been followed by similar increases in the U.S. several weeks later. And there are several big reasons why the upticks in Northern Europe may be much more than temporary blips.

One reason is about to Fall into place, so to speak. Fall should bring colder and drier weather. As I’ve covered for Forbes previously, evidence suggests that transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may increase under such conditions. Such conditions could be a lot more virus-friendly, which, in turn, won’t be human friendly, allowing the SARS-CoV-2 to survive longer. Drier air could decrease the amount moisture in and thus the size of virus-carrying respiratory droplets. That, in turn, could mean higher virus concentrations in each droplet, and even smaller and lighter droplets that could float further and more easily get down your respiratory tract. Additionally, your respiratory tract’s defenses which rely a lot of moisture and mucous could get weaker under colder and drier conditions. Moreover, in the Fall and Winter, activities tend to move indoors where it’s a whole lot harder to maintain social distancing and good ventilation. Therefore, it’s not super surprising that some of the Northern European countries in colder climes have already been experiencing Covid-19 upticks.

Then there are the 1.1 and 2.75.2 reasons, meaning the BQ.1.1 and BA.2.75.2 Omicron subvariants of the SARS-CoV-2. They still make up only small percentages of overall Covid-19 cases. But those percentages have been increasing recently, as the following tweet from @mildanalyst showed:

The spike proteins of the BA.2.75.2 and BQ1.1 subvariants have mutations that help them surprise, surprise, partially evade the immunity that people may have from being exposed to or vaccinated against the BA.5 subvariant.

A final big reason why this Fall and Winter may see yet another Covid-19 surge in Europe and then the U.S. is what many people are not doing: taking Covid-19 precautions. This will be the first Fall and Winter since the Covid-19 pandemic where the majority of the population won’t be wearing face masks indoors in public locations or taking other Covid-19 precautions such as social distancing. In fact, U.S. President Joe Biden recently went as far as to claim that “the pandemic is over,” as I recently reported on September 19 for Forbes. Biden’s premature declaration on a 60 Minutes interview had a number of real scientists and public health experts essentially saying hold on a minute or hold on 60 minutes. While calling the pandemic over and removing Covid-19 precautions may make it seem like things have returned to normal before the midterm elections, doing so puts the population at greater risk for an even bigger Covid-19 surge this Fall and Winter. It could also make it harder to convince folks to get the new bivalent boosters, which will be important given that the protection from previous Covid-19 vaccinations is probably waning by now.

History has shown that what happens in Europe hasn’t stayed in Europe Covid-19-wise. So pay attention to what’s happening in Europe because it could be a preview of what may happen in the U.S. soon. Should the current upticks begin waving at the U.S., the big question is whether, what, and when political leaders over here will do something about it.