The Omicron variant of coronavirus may be ‘slightly milder’ than the Delta strain, but its high level of transmissibility could still put pressure on the NHS, scientists have warned.
In a study published last night, researchers at the University of Hong Kong said the new strain multiplies 70 times faster in human airways, but replicates 10 times slower in the lungs.
Those findings may explain why there has been such an alarming rise in cases, yet fewer infections appearing to progress to severe illness so far. But they warned that the ‘overall threat is likely to be very significant’, with increased infections inevitably bringing more cases of severe disease and death.
Professor Chris Whitty told the Commons Health and Social Care Committee it is safe to ‘assume’ Omicron ‘is not more dangerous than Delta’, but said it is too soon to know definitively.
England’s chief medical officer said the new strain ‘may be milder, it may be the same, we don’t know’.
He explained that prior to the vaccine rollout, 22% of over 65s infected ended up in hospital during the last big wave. Once the jab drive had kicked in, however, that rate dropped to 6% with two doses and was ‘much lower in younger people’.
Prof Whitty told MPs there are two key questions to consider. The first is whether Omicron is ‘intrinsically milder’, to which he repeated ‘it may be’ but said there is still not yet ‘clear evidence’.
And the second is what percentage two doses and then a booster reduces its severity compared to what it would have been, and whether that is as good as Delta.
‘That really is the key question for the health service as a whole. So, I think it’s really critical that we wait for those data before we jump into saying this is what’s going to happen,’ he said.
‘It is possible that, with a boost, we’re better off with Omicron than we are with two vaccines with Delta for severe disease.
‘I don’t think that’s likely for infection, but it’s possible, but we honestly don’t know.
‘The range of possibilities is really quite wide and that’s why it’s very difficult to make definitive views about where the NHS is going to end up in the next four weeks.’
Earlier, Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told BBC Breakfast the doubling rate of Omicron would lead to an ‘extraordinary number of cases’ and ‘a huge wave of infection’.
He added: ‘If you think about getting a year’s worth of rain over a month, then you’re going to get flooding and potentially severe flooding, no matter how much you’ve shored up your defences.
‘And that’s the concern here – that that huge wave is going to cause lots of people to be off work having to isolate, which is going to cause disruption, and it’s going to spill over into people going into hospital.
‘Now the rate at which it spills over is uncertain because we don’t know exactly how severe it is yet, but we’ve no particular reason to think that it’s less severe than previous strains.
‘We know that Covid is always going to be less severe if you’ve been immunised but it may be that rather than the strain itself that’s making a lot of cases look less severe.’
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) chief medical advisor confirmed that there are 15 people in hospital with the Omicron variant of Covid-19 and that its R value in the UK is between 3 and 5.
But Prof Whitty warned the real number in hospital ‘will be much bigger than that’ adding: ‘That is simply the number who are proven, just to be clear.’
He said the UK could surpass the daily peak number of people admitted to hospital with coronavirus.
The CMO went on: ‘The peak of just over 4,500, or 4,583 to be exact, people admitted at the absolute peak – it is possible because it is going to be very concentrated… even if it is milder, because it’s concentrated over a short period of time, you could end up with a higher number than that going into hospital on a single day.
‘That is entirely possible. It may be less than that. But I’m just saying that is certainly possible.’
Some Tory MPs have criticised Prof Whitty after he urged people to scale back Christmas plans and consider which social engagements were most important over the festive period in a bid to slow the spread of the strain.
Conservative former health minister Steve Brine said Prof Whitty had ‘put this country, certainly hospitality… into effective lockdown’, said advisers are ‘running the show’ and asked for extra Treasury support to assist businesses.
Speaking later in the Commons, he said: ‘I could see why there was no statement to the House because there was no new Government policy announced, and then Professor Chris Whitty answered a question from the BBC and at a stroke the chief medical officer changed Government policy and put this country, certainly hospitality… into effective lockdown.
‘Can I ask – yes or no – is what Professor Whitty said last night now the policy of this Government? That we should socialise carefully? What, in practical legal terms, does that mean?
‘And on support, because advisers are now running the show – I bet none of them run a business facing complete ruin as a result of what was said last night – the Treasury is going to have to do more, because otherwise we risk ruining and wasting the amazing support that Her Majesty’s Treasury gave last year.’
Joy Morrissey, Tory MP for Beaconsfield, deleted a tweet in which she said: ‘Perhaps the unelected covid public health spokesperson should defer to what our ELECTED Members of Parliament and the Prime Minister have decided.
‘I know it’s difficult to remember but that’s how democracy works. This is not a public health socialist state.’
Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting called her comments ‘outrageous’ and they were later dismissed by Downing Street, with the Prime Minister’s official spokesman saying he ‘is a hugely respected and trusted public servant who provides independent, evidence-based advice’.
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Prof Whitty repeatedly stressed he did not wish to dictate to people what they can and can’t do.
But he added: ‘This is about saying to people, look, this is a period to prioritise. And also to be clear, (this) was a message the Prime Minister also said last night.’
He went on: ‘What I’m saying is that anybody who has something that really matters to them, concentrate on that thing, and then build out from there, rather than just accepting every invitation and going to every bit of work in person.
‘And it’s very much applies also to work situations. Certainly our team are way down in terms of the numbers coming in, that’s quite right. Most other teams are, that I know, and that’s very sensible. Government guidance is work from home if you can, and that absolutely remains the guidance now.’
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