Pakistan’s New Raga — Should India Believe on Shahbaz Sharif

It is not the first time when a Pakistani premier is talking of peace. In 2001, Parvez Musharraf came to India and Agra declaration was signed. Soon after this, there was a sudden surge in terrorist activities & many mass killings were orchestrated by Pakistan sponsored terrorists.

New Delhi: On 16th Jan 2023, exactly 51 years and one month after Pakistan suffered the worst and humiliating defeat and was forced to surrender 93000 of its soldiers in Dacca, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has started another raga- India and Pakistan should sit and talk, Resolve Kashmir issue, India & Pakistan should stay peacefully and regional prosperity etc. while mentioning name of United Arab Emirates as one of the possible mediators.

Biggest question in this scenario is why should India believe on the Pakistani Premier? Why should India talk when the cross-border terrorism is unstoppable and why should India accept a mediator when Pakistan itself has signed historic “Shimla Agreement” which forbids any third party to mediate between both the countries. Let us understand the intricacies.

1. Past experiences of backstabbing – It is not the first time when a Pakistani premier is talking of peace. In 1999, Indian Prime Minister Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Lahore & got backstabbed in Kargil. In 2001, Parvez Musharraf came to India and Agra declaration was signed. Soon after this, there was a sudden surge in terrorist activities & many mass killings were orchestrated by Pakistan sponsored terrorists. Since then, there have been several instances when peace talks were initiated but stonewalled by terrorist activities like Uri, Pulwama etc. In view of this, it is Pakistan which must show some positivity to create an atmosphere of faith before anyone can even think of talks.

2. Who is the decision maker in Pakistan- Before we believe on Shahbaz Sharif, one must know who is the real decision maker in Pakistan? Is it Pakistani PM? Is it Pakistani President? Or is it Pakistani Parliament? Not at all. All the decisions are taken by Pakistani Army which as ruled directly for over 5 decades and indirectly for the rest of time. The most powerful person in Pakistan is their Army Chief and that is a universal truth. Any talks for peace between India and Pakistan will be lost in a fool’s paradise if Pakistani Army is not a direct party to it. The world knows that decisions Pakistan are not made in its National Assembly but are driven from GHQ- Rawalpindi. In view of this, Shahbaz’s words have no value at all.

3. Terrorism as a state policy – Since its inception, Pakistan has adopted terrorism as a state policy. In 1948, it sent armed mercenaries to Kashmir, in 1965, Pakistan used non state actors to infiltrate Kashmir as part of “Operation Gibraltar”, in seventies, it was responsible of creating armed rebellion in Afghanistan against USSR, and thereafter during over three-decade long insurgency in Jammu & Kashmir, it always favored terrorism even on the international forums.

It was Pakistan where top terror groups like Al-Qaeda, Islamic State, Taliban, Lashkar-e Taiba, Hizbul Mujahideen & Jaish e Muhammad were born, and Pakistani intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was officially a key contributing factor to their formation. In view of this, it is not possible to believe on Shahbaz Sharif unless Pakistan sheds its policy of harboring terrorism & prosecutes global terrorists like Dawood Ibrahim, Hafiz Sayeed, Masood Azhar & many more who are staying in the safe houses of Pakistan ISI.

4. Financial worries of Pakistan- Pakistan is undergoing an extremely critical financial phase. There is no food, no electricity, no medicines, or any other bare necessities. Foreign reserves are depleted to an extent that it can survive only 2 weeks of import. Pakistan’s all-time allies like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar & other Islamic Nations have limited their support fully knowing that the Pakistan is on the verge of financial collapse and on top of this, iron brother China too has pulled out itself when it came to give money. Due to sour relations with India, the bilateral trade is totally stopped. India is sending wheat to Afghanistan but not to Pakistan so it is must for Pakistani government to keep India on its right side so that New Delhi supports it on international podium.

5. IMF Imbroglio & upcoming elections in Pakistan – After the near failure of massive begging campaign by Shahbaz Sharif, Bilawal Bhutto & Army Chief Asim Munir trio, only silver lining for Pakistan is the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where talks are suspended since Pakistan did not follow the strict compliance of enhancing taxes and revenue.

Elections are due in Pakistan this year and amidst food & power crisis, Shahbaz Sharif government must continue fooling its public so that they emerge as a winner. Aim is not to resolve Kashmir issue or start talks with India but to pull their cart till elections are over.

India should understand the nefarious motives of Pakistani Premier Shahbaz Sharif. His statement just before Pakistani elections and at a time of its financial collapse was not a surprise and it did not reveal the true intention. Firstly, he is not the decision maker in Pakistan, so his statements have no value. Secondly, before any Pakistani leader is making such statements, they must show their actions against terrorism and thirdly, India should learn from the past where it was backstabbed every time. Every word of Shahbaz Sharif is to be taken with a pinch of salt.