Rangers vs. Lightning line, prediction: Take underdog Blueshirts

The New York Rangers have the Tampa Bay Lightning on the ropes. And unlike the first two rounds, in which the Blueshirts benefited from some puck luck and going up against suspect goaltending, the two wins over the Bolts were no-doubters.

Through the first 14 games of the postseason, the Rangers struggled to keep up with their opponents at 5-on-5, relying on goalie Igor Shesterkin and their power play to keep them in contests. That hasn’t been the case through the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals.

While the Lightning do have the stronger numbers at 5-on-5, the difference is negligible, especially compared to what we saw out of the Rangers in the first two rounds. Additionally, the Rangers aren’t set up to dominate the 5-on-5 battle. They’re comfortable waiting out their opponents and then pouncing on a mistake or a good bounce.

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That type of style requires that you win the goaltending battle, but right now that isn’t even a question. Shesterkin has not missed a beat since the end of Round 1 and is seemingly peaking for his showdown with Andrei Vasilevskiy.

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Shesterkin has skated to a .943 save percentage and has saved 3.5 goals above expected (GSAx) through the first two games, while Vasilevskiy has not been sharp at all. The reigning playoff MVP has posted an .854 save percentage and a -3 GSAx in the series so far.

Oftentimes, bookmakers will bake in a “must-win” tax when a team is down 0-2 in a series and that’s the case here with the Lightning sitting at -170. Keep riding the red-hot Rangers at plus money.

The play: Rangers +145 (BetMGM)