Raptors a mediocre disappointment a quarter of way through season

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The good news for the Toronto Raptors is that 75% of the regular season schedule remains to be played.

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The bad news is that this has been one underwhelming outfit through the first 20 games, with the team showing zero consistency from night to night and lots of areas for improvement.

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Now’s a good time to take stock of these Raptors.

To quote long-time NFL coach Dennis Green, “They are what we thought they were” heading into the season: A team that will hover around .500, likely winning anywhere between 38-44 games, and be in a dog fight just to make the NBA Play-In Tournament again.

The 9-11 Raptors rank 14th overall defensively, but just 22nd in offensive efficiency. The team is strong on the offensive glass (8th), solid overall rebounding-wise (11th), takes care of the ball well (8th in assist-to-turnover ratio) and move it well (only three teams score more baskets that are assisted than the Raptors), but shooting remains a major issue.

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Only three teams have a lower true shooting percentage (a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws) and only six have a lower effective field goal percentage. In a league that has prioritized shooting over everything else, Toronto sits 24th out of 30 teams in three-point makes per game, tied for second-worst with the disappointing Los Angeles Lakers in accuracy and trail only the Denver Nuggets in free throw percentage.

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The roster has looked clunky and mismatched, just as most people not employed in the Raptors’ front office expected heading into the season. Too few shooters, too many top players fighting for the same efficiency spots on offence.

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Toronto has a 24.2% probability of making the playoffs, according to basketball-reference.com, higher than only four other teams int he conference and is pegged with a 6.5% chance of avoiding the Play-In to get there. That said, the same site says Toronto has had to deal with the fourth-toughest schedule in the East so far, according to strength of schedule and has an easier go the rest of the way. Toronto has already played 14 games against teams .500 or better — only Chicago has had more — and has gone 5-9 in those games.

The biggest positive of the early going has been the play of Scottie Barnes, who has turned in an all-star worthy campaign, besting even his rookie of the year level of a couple of seasons ago. It was a needed bounce back for the man expected to be the face of the franchise for years to come. Barnes had taken a step back as a sophomore, but worked extra hard to reinvent himself as a complete player. Barnes is shooting 38% on three-point attempts after hitting only 30% as a rookie and 28% last season. Imagine where this team would be without him.

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Pascal Siakam has had to adjust to a new offensive system under Darko Rajakovic where he is no longer the featured option, and also has dealt with his uncertain future in Toronto well. The free agent to be has not been offered a contract extension and obviously has not been traded. He exists in a kind of limbo, like teammates OG Anunoby (who has had a strong season) and Gary Trent Jr. (who has not).

Management wanted to see if this group could work and thrive. The answer appears to be not without more balance, namely more quality shooters, ideally guards with that talent. Left as is, it’s become pretty clear this will be a team fighting for a .500 record and a chance to play an extra week or so once the regular season concludes.

Sub-optimal.

@WolstatSun

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