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The Raptors won’t surrender 18 three-pointers or allow opponents to shoot 50% from beyond the arc too often as was the case against Cleveland on Sunday. It’s the second-most they’ve given up all season and the highest accuracy by an opponent. Still, even if the Cavs had shot a more ordinary 40%, it probably would have been a win for the home side.
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Toronto’s had Cleveland’s number this year, but the Cavs finally got some revenge and exorcised a few demons with Fred VanVleet, usually quite good against them, out of the lineup.
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Getting the three-point math right has been an issue for this team. Toronto averages 10.7 three-point makes a game (more than only five teams) and allows 12.4.
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One thing that probably should be particularly alarming to the Raptors is the fact that of the 12 highest three-point games by an opponent in 2022-23 eight have come since the calendar switched over and three of the worst seven have come in February.
This team has fewer good shooters than just about any playoff or play-in contender in the NBA, so if they’re going to allow nearly 45% three-point shooting it’s going to be awfully tough to win games. They’ll routinely be giving up tons of extra points on three-pointers compared to how many they manage. That’s a major issue, though obviously getting Fred VanVleet back should help even things out because he’s both the most dangerous outside shooter on the team and the type of defender that makes it tougher on opponents to score.
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A couple of big games loom (against play-in rivals Chicago and Washington). Neither are big-time three-point threats, so they represent opportunities for Toronto to even the math out a bit.
AROUND THE RIM
- Yes it’s a small sample size, but Jakob Poeltl is averaging four offensive rebounds per game since returning to the Raptors (even though he had 0 against Cleveland on Sunday, just the fourth time all year he hasn’t had at least one). The most any Raptor has managed in a season is 3.5 by Antonio Davis, 3.4 by Popeye Jones, and 3.3 by both Davis and Jerome Williams. Only those three players, plus Marcus Camby and Jonas Valanciunas have averaged three offensive boards in a season as a Raptor. You’d think Poeltl is due to come down quite a bit on the offensive boards, but he actually averaged 3.9 offensive rebounds in San Antonio last season, something only Dennis Rodman and David Robinson (2X each) have bested.
- Jeff Dowtin made a strong first impression back in mid-November in similar circumstances as he did against the Pistons. It was in Detroit when Nick Nurse called on the rookie and Dowtin responded with an outstanding 15 minutes (four points, four rebounds, two assists and an important block). He’d only played eight minutes in two games prior to that. Strangely, Dowtin’s barely been given a shot since, even though few teams have less depth at guard than Toronto. He had a strong game against Brooklyn in November but was basically ignored until Valentine’s Day by Nurse. I’ve mentioned I felt since that night in Detroit Dowtin is an NBA player. It’s odd he hasn’t been given more chances to show it, but he’s played at least 10 minutes in four straight now (three of them wins) and it would be nice to see what he can do even when Fred VanVleet returns to the lineup.
- Dowtin was arguably the best Raptors reserve against Cleveland.8 w
- Letting Kevin Love go to rival Miami seemed like a weird decision by the Cavs as they might meet in the playoffs. Either way this is a dangerous team. They defend as well as just about anyone and have a pair of dynamic scorers in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. They’ll be a tough out, especially if Isaac Okoro, long a complete non-factor as a shooter, continues his stunning turnaround from deep (48% in January and 39% in February).
- Detroit’s in a pretty good spot for a franchise that has missed the playoffs four straight seasons and hasn’t won more than 23 games in that time. They’ll be getting back an elite talent in Cade Cunningham next season, play in a beautiful new arena, have a shot to pair Cunningham with potential franchise pillars Victor Wembenyama or Scoot Henderson, also have the talented Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren and have played the “redraft” game in intriguing fashion. Second overall picks don’t have the best record, most don’t fare as well in the NBA as top picks or even No. 3 overall players, but it’s worth taking a chance on James Wiseman and Marvin Bagley III, who went second in two of the last five drafts.
THREE STARS VS. CAVALIERS
1 Donovan Mitchell
2 Pascal Siakam
3 Jarrett Allen
Honourable mention: Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jakob Poeltl
THREE STARS VS. PISTONS
1 Pascal Siakam
2 Jakob Poeltl
3 Marvin Bagley III
Honourable mention: Precious Achiuwa, James Wiseman
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