Restaurants expect a gloomy Christmas as customers leave town, tourists stay away

He said he was experiencing his worst season since the pandemic began, with business down 40 per cent compared with last year, while costs had gone up because of more expensive food, wine and utilities.

Aside from weaker bookings, companies were also spending less and asking for bigger discounts.

“As an industry, it’s going to be really challenging for us and there are going to be casualties – there are no two ways about it,” he said.

Osborn was among owners of several restaurants who told the Post they were worried about the festive season, usually a highly profitable time of the year.

Analysts have predicted a 10 to 15 per cent drop in business, which would see the catering sector lose up to HK$30 million (US$3.8 million) over the festive season.

After the government introduced the “0+3” scheme in September, Hong Kong residents began travelling more.

But there was no surge in visitors. There were 80,000 arrivals last month according to provisional data from the Hong Kong Tourism Board, slightly over a fifth more than in September.

The increase paled in comparison with pre-pandemic arrivals. In 2018, the city attracted a record 65.1 million visitors.

On the other hand, the “0+3” scheme encouraged more residents to travel, as it was much more relaxed than the rules in place this time last year.

Those entering Hong Kong last Christmas had to spend between seven and 21 days in quarantine in a hotel, depending where they arrived from.

Checks with flagship carrier Cathay Pacific showed that economy and premium economy seats on multiple flights to popular destinations such as Tokyo, London and Bangkok were sold out from mid to late December.

Chef Tiffany Lo Man-wah, 40, said she was experiencing her toughest period since opening her French bistro, called jean may, in July 2020.

“We were all waiting for the rules to ease … and still nobody is coming in,” she said.

While visitors appeared to be waiting for Hong Kong to switch to “0+0”, doing away with restrictions, Hongkongers have begun taking off.

“It is a bit of a shock,” Lo said.

A former banker turned chef, she said that unlike previous years when business picked up towards year-end, fewer people were coming now and they were spending less.

She was bracing herself for the worst, with her landlord already serving notice that her rent would go up by 20 per cent next March.

Rising food costs have driven up the price of duck breast, for one of her signature dishes, three times this year.

“The whole retail environment is being pushed over the cliff,” she said.

Matt Richardson, co-owner of bars and restaurants Honky Tonks, Shady Acres and Quality Goods Club, said he was just hoping for the best until December 18, after which people would leave for their Christmas break.

“We’re predicting this to be our slowest peak season since the pandemic started,” said Richardson, who is English.

He said he was only hoping to break even. “That’s quite a disappointing aim, just to try and break even for the year, but that’s what we’re aiming for.”

Simon Wong Ka-wo, president of the Hong Kong Federation of Restaurants and Related Trades, also expected business to shrink over the festive season.

He estimated that each resident who travelled would spend about HK$30,000, including for air tickets, and that might have been money they would have spent in Hong Kong.

Nightlife and entertainment magnate Allan Zeman said it was obvious that the change to the “0+3” scheme did not have the effect the government hoped for, as there was no influx of visitors.

He urged the government to go further and lift remaining restrictions.

“It’s crucial,” he said. “We have December coming, and hopefully the government can relax soon to just try and salvage whatever can be salvaged.”

Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, warned that the city would be hurt if it persisted with its “unbalanced reopening approach”.

“The ‘revenge travel’ demand will drain consumption power away from Hong Kong, and there will be only a minimal number of tourists,” he said.

Chef Osborn said the industry hoped there would be changes to the pandemic restrictions to bring more people into Hong Kong.

“We’re just tired of being on our knees as an industry,” he said.