Restaurants have had to scramble to ensure that their customers will get a traditional turkey dinner for Thanksgiving.
Outbreaks of avian influenza on top of inflation and supply chain issues have complicated this year’s holiday season.
“It’s going to be different for us,” said Eric Stenta, vice president of operations for Polly’s Pies Restaurant & Bakery, in a phone interview.
“The product is going to be great. I’m not concerned about that. But for those people who have a very specific desire not to have bones or not to have dark meat, this is going to be an interesting dilemma for them, because there’s not going to be enough of that around. And I don’t think we’re the only ones in that boat.”
Bird flu has resulted in the loss of 7.4 million commercial market young turkeys since March, acccording to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Turkey meat production will be down 5.6 percent, or 1.29 billion pounds for the fourth quarter of 2022, a report by the department estimated.
Suppliers have increased production to meet holiday demand, although birds will be smaller and there will be fewer toms and more hens, according to the agency.
Shoppers don’t need to worry about the turkey supply, according to the National Turkey Federation, but it advises they secure their birds as soon as possible.
“The turkey suppliers are putting all their eggs in the retail market,” said Stenta. “They’re really saving things up for the grocery stores, because places like Safeway, Kroger, they’ve got $100 million contracts with these poultry farmers. I think the shoppers are going to feel the price.”
He said producers’ priority has been to put whole birds on the market, which reduces the supply for items such as turkey breasts. The retail price of boneless, skinless turkey breast hit a record high of $6.70 per pound in September, according to a news release from the American Farm Bureau Federation. In September 2021, the price was $3.16 per pound.
The heat-and-serve option
To cope with the shortage, Polly’s Pies took turkey dinner off the menu in the summer, when demand was down. The chain kept a cold turkey sandwich on the menu, but Stenta said getting the meat from his supplier was touch-and-go.
For Thanksgiving Day, Polly’s will be focused on selling pre-ordered heat-and-serve family feasts with whole roasted turkeys. The feasts serve six and include smashed red skin potatoes, sweet potatoes, green beans, stuffing, cranberries, rolls and pie. Choices are apple, pumpkin and Pumpkin Maple Crunch.
Polly’s staff will be assembling the feasts for pickup during the chain’s 72-hour pie-baking marathon, during which it produces enough pies to fulfill more than 55,000 orders, according to a news release.
All pies pre-ordered for pickup are baked the night before, according to Stenta.
“Basically our ovens are going 24 hours a day from Monday night until Wednesday morning at 5.”
Polly’s will close its dining room on Thanksgiving Day to concentrate on to-go service. Other restaurant chains will be open on the holiday and serving special dine-in menus as well as take-out feasts.
Polly’s Thanksgiving feasts cost $189.99 and will feed six or more people, according to the chain’s website. Prices for turkey feasts from other chains range from $130-$200. They vary on what sides they include, but most have potatoes and rolls. Many do not include dessert.
The power of tradition
Prices posted on chains’ website have risen from a few dollars to around $40 from 2021.
“Look at everything. Prices are going up. Turkey, with a limited supply, the law of supply and demand goes into effect,” said Jim Cannon, chief operating officer for Urban Plates.
“I knew about this last year going into this year. We secured our turkeys early, and good thing,” he said in a phone interview.
Urban Plates is taking orders for ready-to-eat plates at $23.95 as well as heat-and-serve feasts that serve six to eight for $169.95.
To-go meals can pay off in convenience, Cannon said.
“We just want to make Thanksgiving easier for them, so they can spend more time with their families, and we can take care of the food for them.”
Urban Plates serves organic mashed potatoes, cranberries and stuffing. But it also offers less traditional sides such as roasted Brussels sprouts and rainbow carrots with golden beets. Dessert options include hummingbird cake as well as apple pie.
“Most people are traditional,” he said. “Some people do a big feast where they do turkey and different things as well.”
Stenta said that while there’s a little flexibility when it comes to sides and desserts, most diners want what they’re familiar with.
“I’m amazed every year at how many people are gravitating toward more traditional items. I guess maybe when the Gen Z’ers and all those other young people have the purchasing power of ordering holiday meals, we’ll see if the trends have changed,” he said.
“Right now tradition is pretty well intact. It’s not year-round, but I think during the holidays they want what they’ve always had, with maybe a few variations.”
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