Rising temperature between US and China must be cooled: Ng Eng Hen

SINGAPORE – The temperature between the United States and China has not reached boiling point but it is rising, and the world must do all it can to cool it, said Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen.

Speaking at the 59th Munich Security Conference on Friday, he added that the issue of Taiwan might cause a physical confrontation, even if neither superpower wants one, and warned of the costs of such a conflict.

He cited moves by both sides that could be seen as building up towards a war, such as recent US access to more bases in the Philippines and China’s increased military presence in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

While such “pre-positioning” for deterrence is alive and well, the war drums have not started beating audibly, said Dr Ng at the high-level conference, a major annual event for defence and foreign policymakers.

A war in Asia will be devastating, not only for Asia but globally, he noted. “The reasons for war do not justify any in Asia. The stakes are not worth it, the consequences are disastrous and viable alternatives do exist.”

World leaders attending the three-day event at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel include US Vice-President Kamala Harris, top China diplomat Wang Yi and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

This is the first such conference since the Ukraine war broke out in late February 2022. The previous meeting had been held as Russian troops gathered at the border with Ukraine.

US-China ties have been under heightened tension in recent weeks, as the fallout over the shooting of a Chinese balloon that intruded into American airspace in early February continues to make headlines.

Dr Ng, who was speaking at a closed roundtable session alongside other officials such as Philippines Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo and China’s former vice-minister for foreign affairs Fu Ying, said his speech was structured around two key questions.

Is a physical conflict between the US and China inevitable in the next decade? When it occurs, what would be the likely casus belli, or a cause or justification, for war?

He noted that both US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping have said that their countries do not seek conflict – which Mr Biden reiterated after the downing of the Chinese balloon.

But military leaders from both sides have not been so circumspect, noted Dr Ng. For instance, a US general recently wrote an internal memo about preparing for a conflict in 2025.

Former vice-chairman of China’s Central Military Commission Xu Qiliang has also urged the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to maintain a high-readiness posture, after the Communist Party’s 20th party congress in October 2022.

Dr Ng cited developments that could be read by the Chinese as preparation for war.