Rockets clinch best possible 2023 draft odds for NBA’s four lottery picks

Praying for Victor (Wembanyama)? If so, Monday’s loss in New York was good news for the Houston Rockets, who clinched one of three maximum odds slots entering the NBA’s 2023 draft lottery.

Charlotte (25-51) has the league’s fourth-worst record, and the Rockets (18-58) only have six games left to potentially win. Thus, Houston has mathematically clinched one of the NBA’s worst three records of the 2022-23 season. Regardless of where they finish relative to Detroit (16-59) and San Antonio (19-56), the odds of securing one of the top-four draft picks are identical for those teams.

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Wembanyama is widely considered the top 2023 draft prospect, while Scoot Henderson of the NBA G League Ignite and Brandon Miller of the University of Alabama are viewed as in the next tier.

As for the Rockets, Spurs, and Pistons, there is still some relevance when it comes to the final standings order. The team with the worst record cannot fall below No. 5 in the first-round order (pick odds), whereas the second-worst team could conceivably drop to No. 6, and the third-worst to No. 7 overall. With Monday’s clinching news, the Rockets are guaranteed of a top-seven selection, but they could raise that “floor” to No. 6 or No. 5, depending on the next few games.

With the loss, the #Rockets clinched a bottom-3 record and best possible odds at a top-4 pick:

Pick 1: 14.00%
Pick 2: 13.42%
Pick 3: 12.75%
Pick 4: 11.97%

The remaining ~48% of outcomes are up in the air. Right now, as the second-worst team:

Pick 5: 27.84%
Pick 6: 20.02%

— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) March 28, 2023

There is one way the Rockets could still slightly boost their lottery odds, though it’s largely out of their control. Should the Nets fall to the Eastern Conference play-in tournament — as of Monday, they were tied with Miami (40-35) for the final playoff spot to avoid the play-in fate — and then miss the playoffs, Houston could get a very small odds bump due to its pick-swap right with Brooklyn.

Coincidentally, the Rockets play at Brooklyn on Wednesday night. A loss by Houston would help the Rockets in their “race” for a better pick floor, but a win offers more lottery upside, even if slight.

The NBA holds its 2023 draft lottery on Tuesday, May 16. After the lottery determines the top-four picks of the first round, the remaining 26 selections are sorted by record — first among non-playoff teams, and then among those who qualify for the 16-team playoffs.