Rockets expected to be cautious in Kevin Porter Jr. contract extension talks

Having just finished his third NBA season, Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr. is eligible for a contract extension this offseason. However, whether it makes sense for Houston to give him one is another matter.

For starters, while Porter has shown flashes of brilliant play, consistency has been an issue. There are also nagging off-court concerns, which led to his arrival in Houston in the first place after a series of troubling incidents in Cleveland. Rockets general manager Rafael Stone might want another year of evidence before offering long-term money.

As a result, it’s no surprise that ESPN’s Tim MacMahon writes:

The Rockets are expected to approach his rookie extension talks with caution — if at all.

Beyond personal and on-court factors, much of the decision may come down to simple math. Because Porter was the final pick (No. 30) of the 2019 first round, retaining his Bird rights for re-signing purposes would carry a relatively small “cap hold” in the 2023 offseason. That’s when the Rockets are currently positioned to have significant salary cap flexibility, so maximizing potential cap room may be a priority.

#Rockets come in 29th of 30 teams in ESPN’s initial power rankings for 2022-23. @espn_macmahon says the team is expected to approach KPJ extension talks “with caution — if at all” and Eric Gordon’s best value to Houston is “probably as trade bait.” https://t.co/nPi0XjFfDa

— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) June 17, 2022

By contrast, if the Rockets were to extend Porter this offseason, his salary figure entering the 2023-24 season would likely be higher than his projected cap hold of $9.6 million. Also, because Porter will be coming off his rookie contract, he would be a restricted free agent in 2023 — which would allow Houston to match any outside offer and still retain him. That dynamic further mitigates the risk of not extending early.

Thus, with minimal downside and clear upside in multiple areas, the smart play for the Rockets — unless Porter is willing to take a clear discount — is likely waiting until the 2023 offseason to make a final call.