San Francisco 49ers Should Not Risk Starting Injured Jimmy Garoppolo Over Trey Lance

As has frequently been the case since his arrival in 2017, the outcome of the San Francisco 49ers’ season will likely be determined by the health of Jimmy Garoppolo.

Garoppolo’s checkered injury history has in part defined the Kyle Shanahan-John Lynch era.

Their destiny was already determined in 2017 when they traded for Garoppolo and he turned an arduous maiden season of a rebuild into one of the most encouraging 6-10 campaigns of recent memory. Thereafter, however, the 49ers have lived and died on Garoppolo’s ability to stay healthy.

The 2018 and 2020 seasons were sunk by Garoppolo injuries, with those forgettable years sandwiched between a memorable 2019 run to the Super Bowl with their quarterback at full health for the entire year.

And, with the 49ers fighting for their playoff lives going into the final two weeks of the 2021 season, the headlines are again being dominated by an injury to Garoppolo. The only exception this time is that the 49ers have a viable alternative at quarterback.

Garoppolo suffered an ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) tear and a chipped bone in his right thumb in the 49ers’ frustrating Week 16 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Speaking in his press conference on Wednesday, Shanahan —per The Athletic—said Garoppolo will not need surgery and has a chance to start in the Niners’ final home game of the year against the Houston Texans.

Shortly after, Garoppolo said he was “confident” in his ability to play versus Houston despite the injury.

However, Garoppolo was listed as having not practiced on Thursday, casting his potential involvement into further doubt. Should he be unable to start, rookie third overall pick Trey Lance will get the start.

It seems unlikely Garoppolo will be in a condition to start in a critical game for the Niners’ postseason hopes. If it did come down to a choice between a banged-up Garoppolo and a healthy Lance, it should be an easy one for the 49ers to make.

Garoppolo threw two critical interceptions in the Thursday Night Football loss to Tennessee and missed a would-be touchdown throw to a wide-open Kyle Juszczyk. Those errors proved decisive in a 20-17 defeat and, battling an injury that can make it more difficult to grip the ball, it is tough to have confidence in him avoiding similar mistakes against the Texans.

The Niners don’t have to cast their minds back that far to find evidence of Garoppolo struggling when not fully healthy. He sat out the second half against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4 after a poor first half in which he battled a calf injury.

In Week 5 of 2020, he threw two picks in a blowout loss to the Miami Dolphins while clearly still suffering with a sprained ankle sustained in Week 2. His season would end three games later.

Even against a lowly 4-11 Texans team, the 49ers cannot afford to risk the possibility of Garoppolo producing such mistakes when a win and a New Orleans Saints loss to the Carolina Panthers would punch their ticket to the postseason.

The Texans forced three turnovers, including two Justin Herbert interceptions, in a stunning 41-29 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week and they would surely love to play spoiler again.

The chances of them doing so increase with an injured Garoppolo under center. Lance is obviously a long way from the finished product with just one and a half games under his belt, but his dual-threat skill set gives the 49ers’ offense greater upside that could be unleashed against an inferior opponent and offers added diversity to a San Francisco run game that should thrive against a Texans defense allowing 143.1 yards per game on the ground.

Simply put, this is a game tailor made for Lance to shine and, with Shanahan saying the rookie is “doing better in all areas” than in his Week 5 start against the Arizona Cardinals, per 49ers Webzone, there is seemingly little reason for the 49ers not to have faith in the man they traded three first-round picks to acquire to deliver in Garoppolo’s stead.

There is risk attached to starting a player as inexperienced as Lance, yet the greater risk would be handing the keys to the offense to an injured Garoppolo, regardless of how much his thumb improves.

The 49ers appear willing to play the waiting game with Garoppolo’s injury but the safer course of action would be to shut him down for this week and look to get a crucial early return on their investment in Lance.