Serie A 2022-23: Inter favourites to regain title – Stats Perform AI predicts

The
Rossoneri
have
brought
in
Belgium
duo
Charles
De
Ketelaere
and
Divock
Origi
to
bolster
Stefano
Pioli’s
squad
as
they
prepare
to
face
another
challenge
from
rivals
Inter.

Simone
Inzaghi
will
have
his
own
Belgium
international
striker
Romelu
Lukaku
to
call
on
again
after
he
was
brought
back
on
loan
from
Chelsea.

How
will
those
clubs
fare,
who
is
likely
to
be
their
closest
challengers,
and
who
will
be
fearing
the
drop
from
Italy’s
top
flight?

Stats
Perform
AI
has
predicted
the
outcome
of
the
campaign,
estimating
the
likelihood
of
teams
finishing
in
each
position
informed
by
their
expected
results
in
each
match.

These
are
calculated
using
betting
odds
and
Stats
Perform’s
team
rankings
–
based
on
historical
and
recent
team
performances
–
and
have
thrown
up
some
interesting
results,
with
a
heavy
favourite
for
top
spot.

INTER
TO
TAKE
THEIR
TITLE
BACK
WITH
FAMILIAR
FACE
ON
BOARD

In
the
end,
there
were
just
two
points
in
it.

A
fascinating
battle
between
Milan
and
Inter
last
season
saw
Pioli’s
men
edge
the
title
with
86
points
after
a
3-0
win
at
Sassuolo
on
the
final
day.

Despite
the
impressive
way
Milan
closed
out
that
title,
the
data
makes
Inter
47.97
per
cent
favourites
to
regain
it
in
2022-23.

The
return
of
Lukaku
is
likely
to
be
a
big
reason
for
that,
with
the
29-year-old
having
scored
47
goals
in
72
Serie
A
games
prior
to
joining
Chelsea
last
year,
and
he
played
a
major
part
in
Inter’s
Scudetto
win
in
2020-21.

Milan’s
chances
are
surprisingly
not
even
second
best,
with
the
data
suggesting
there
is
a
16.43
per
cent
likelihood
of
them
retaining
their
title,
with
Juventus
judged
to
have
a
slightly
better
17.93
per
cent
chance.

Napoli
are
deemed
to
have
a
13.75
per
cent
chance,
with
no
other
team
being
considered
to
have
any
more
than
a
two
per
cent
chance,
including
Jose
Mourinho’s
Roma
at
1.99
per
cent.

TOP
FOUR
FIGHT
EXPECTED
TO
BE
MORE
OF
THE
SAME

There
was
very
little
drama
in
the
race
for
the
Champions
League
spots
last
season,
with
Napoli
and
Juventus
well
out
of
the
title
fight
but
clear
of
fifth
place
with
multiple
games
to
go.

Stats
Perform
AI
expects
the
same
four
teams
to
take
up
those
spots
again,
albeit
in
a
different
order,
with
Juve
in
second,
Milan
third
and
Napoli
fourth.

The
positive
numbers
for
the
Bianconeri
are
likely
to
be
a
result
of
Serbia
striker
Dusan
Vlahovic
having
a
full
season
to
lead
the
line,
along
with
big
name
additions
of
Paul
Pogba
and
Angel
Di
Maria.

Napoli
could
be
the
most
at
risk
after
losing
several
key
players
since
the
end
of
last
season,
including
Kalidou
Koulibaly,
Lorenzo
Insigne
and
Dries
Mertens,
but
they
are
still
given
a
73.09
per
cent
chance
of
Champions
League
qualification.

In
the
chasing
pack,
Roma
are
given
a
30.18
per
cent
chance
of
a
top
four
spot
and
Stats
Perform
AI
believes
Mourinho’s
men
are
the
likeliest
team
to
finish
in
one
of
the
two
Europa
League
places,
with
no
team
given
a
greater
chance
than
the
Giallorossi’s
19.58
per
cent.

Atalanta
have
a
20.64
per
cent
chance
of
getting
back
into
the
top
four,
though
are
still
deemed
likely
to
improve
on
last
season’s
eighth
place
as
favourites
for
sixth
and
qualification
for
the
Europa
League
(18.56
per
cent).

That
leaves
Lazio
with
a
17.09
per
cent
chance
of
seventh
and
a
Europa
Conference
League
spot,
though
Fiorentina
(11.10),
Hellas
Verona
(8.45)
and
Sassuolo
(8.34)
are
not
counted
out
entirely.

CREMONESE
UNLIKELY
TO
RISE
TO
THE
TOP

It
is
not
too
much
of
a
surprise
to
see
the
promoted
teams
are
predicted
to
be
facing
a
tough
task
to
stay
up.

Cremonese
are
the
favourites
for
the
drop
at
63.41
per
cent,
with
Lecce
(47.10
per
cent)
also
expected
to
head
back
to
Serie
B
at
the
end
of
the
campaign.

Second
favourites
for
relegation,
though,
are
last
year’s
17th
place
team
Salernitana,
who
avoided
relegation
by
a
single
point
ahead
of
Cagliari.
Davide
Nicola’s
side
are
handed
a
58.10
per
cent
chance
of
failing
to
escape
this
time.

Monza
came
up
through
the
play-offs
and
have
made
a
number
of
new
signings,
including
former
Inter
players
Andrea
Ranocchia
and
Stefano
Sensi,
which
could
be
why
they
are
given
just
a
27.92
per
cent
chance
of
going
back
down,
slightly
ahead
of
Empoli
at
25.17
per
cent.

Only
four
teams
are
given
a
zero
per
cent
chance
of
relegation,
which
unsurprisingly
is
last
season’s
top
four.