Silicon Valley Bank collapse was ‘fastest since Barings’, Bank of England says – business live

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MPs hold Silicon Valley Bank UK hearing – watch live!

Over in parliament, the Treasury Committee is about to quiz top leaders from the Bank of England about the collapse and rescue of Silicon Valley Bank UK.

You can watch the session here (or at the top of this blog):

Bank of England governor faces questions from MPs at Treasury committee – watch live

As explained in the opening post, MPs will hear from the Governor of the Bank of England, the Chief Executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Bank’s Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking.

They are expected to examine how SVB UK was supervised before its collapse, how HSBC was chosen as a purchaser, and what lessons can be learnt about the regulation of the banking sector.

As well as SVB UK’s sale to HSBC for £1, the Committee will cover wider stresses in the banking sector, including implications for the UK of the failure of Credit Suisse.

The witnesses are:

  • Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England

  • Sir Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking, Bank of England

  • Sam Woods, Chief Executive Officer, Prudential Regulation Authority and Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation, Bank of England

Key events

Bailey: we’re in period of very heightened tension and alertness

Andrew Bailey reiterates that the markets are trying to find ‘points of weakness’ in the banking sector.

He insists that we are not facing a repeat of the financial crisis 15 years ago.

“I don’t think we are at all in the place we were in in 2007-08. We are at a very different place to then.

But we have to be very vigilant.

He insists that the Bank is being vigilant, despite its belief in the strength of the UK banking sector.

As Bailey puts it:

I do not want to give you for a moment the idea that we are not very vigilant, because we are.

We are in a period of very heightened, frankly, tension and alertness and we will go on being vigilant.

Deputy governor Sir Dave Ramsden says the Bank is keeping a close eye on bank funding costs, and the consequences of those changes on households and businesses.

Ramsden also channels the v-word, adding:

We have to remain incredibly vigilant.

Sam Woods, PRA boss, immediately stresses the issue we pointed to last week – that speed with which runs can now happen (social media/ digital banking) might require change in regulation, specifically the liquidity coverage ratios. SVB UK lost £3bn in deposits in a day on 10th pic.twitter.com/eqJCzxOelt

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) March 28, 2023

Q: Will the Bank of England’s stress tests need to reflect the speed at which people can move their deposits, electronically, rather than having to queue at a bank?

Sam Woods, CEO of the Prudential Regulation Authority, agrees that the Bank needs to think about this.

He says:

All of us can move money from our accounts in as short a time it will take me to answer this question. That is a relatively new feature of the market.

The speed at which news can pass these days through communities, including through private messaging, is another factor, he adds.

A third factor is the “concentrated basis” of the deposits at SVB UK, Woods continues – a reference to its customer base of tech start-ups.

Andrew Bailey then touches on the turmoil in the markets last Friday, when Deutsche Bank’s shares took a tumble.

He says these “sharp market movements” are a sign that the strength of certain institutions is being “tested out” by the markets, rather than being based on “identified weaknesses”.

Bailey says:

There is quite a bit of testing out going on at the moment.

Bailey: UK banking sector in strong position

Q: Have things settled down in the banking sector? Is March’s turmoil behind us?

BoE governor Andrew Bailey says the US authorities are still dealing with some of the consequences of the issue on their regional banks.

[Yesterday, US regulators agreed a deal under which most of Silicon Valley Bank is being taken over by First Citizens, a North Carolina lender].

Credit Suisse (which was rescued the weekend after Silicon Valley Bank) is “rather an institional-specific issue”, Bailey says.

And he insists that the UK banking sector is in a strong position – both in terms of capital, and liquidity.

Bailey: SVB was fastest collapse since Barings

The hearing begins, with Treasury committee chair Harriett Baldwin asking if the Bank was surprised by the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank this month.

Q: Did it come out of left-field? Were you taken by surprise?

Governor Andrew Bailey says he would agree with that.

The collapse of SBV UK’s parent bank, in the US, was probably the fastest collapse the governor can remember in his 30-year career.

Bailey compares Silicon Valley Bank’s passage “from health to death” was the fastest since the collapse of Barings Bank (which failed in 1995 after rogue trader Nick Leeson ran up huge losses through unauthorised and concealed trading positions).

Barings was “a Friday to Sunday thing”, Bailey reminds the committee, and SVB was “pretty similar” (unlike Credit Suisse, which he says was a much more drawn-out affair.)

SVB, the governor, says “was a very fast passage to failure”.

MPs hold Silicon Valley Bank UK hearing – watch live!

Over in parliament, the Treasury Committee is about to quiz top leaders from the Bank of England about the collapse and rescue of Silicon Valley Bank UK.

You can watch the session here (or at the top of this blog):

Bank of England governor faces questions from MPs at Treasury committee – watch live

As explained in the opening post, MPs will hear from the Governor of the Bank of England, the Chief Executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Bank’s Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking.

They are expected to examine how SVB UK was supervised before its collapse, how HSBC was chosen as a purchaser, and what lessons can be learnt about the regulation of the banking sector.

As well as SVB UK’s sale to HSBC for £1, the Committee will cover wider stresses in the banking sector, including implications for the UK of the failure of Credit Suisse.

The witnesses are:

  • Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England

  • Sir Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking, Bank of England

  • Sam Woods, Chief Executive Officer, Prudential Regulation Authority and Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation, Bank of England

Andrew Bailey’s claim that the rise in inactivity driven by early retirement has led to higher interest rates to tackle inflation (see earlier post) has not impressed Neil Wilson, analyst at Markets.com.

Wilson writes:

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey loves to play the blame game.

One minute he’s accusing greedy workers of demanding too much pay; now it’s the fault of early retirees for pushing up inflation. When will he ever admit that maybe the Bank was far too slow to rein in ultra-loose monetary policy as the pandemic ended? The Bank of England was not alone, of course, but he should still take it on the chin.

Less the unreliable boyfriend and more the lying husband who got caught with lipstick on his collar but won’t admit it.

The pound has inched higher against the US dollar this morning, up a quarter of a cent at $1.231, following Bailey’s speech to the LSE last night.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown:

Governor Andrew Bailey stressed in his speech in London last night that interest rates may have to move higher if there were signs of persistent inflationary pressure. For now, policymakers don’t see a threat to financial stability in the UK, given that banks are resilient with robust capital positions.

The focus is on sticky prices and consumers are still in a jam with food price inflation hitting fresh record levels according to the British Retail Consortium

Kantar’s latest grocery report (see earlier post) also found that shoppers have begun looking ahead to Easter.

Sales of chocolate eggs are up on last year, despite the surge in prices reported by the BRC this morning.

Kantar says:

Easter Sunday falls slightly earlier this year and chocolate egg sales are already up 6% in volume terms on last year. The ever-popular hot cross bun is also making its way into shoppers’ baskets again, with sales up by 5%.

In the City, the FTSE 100 share index has gained 0.5% in early trading, as fears over the banking sector continue to ease.

The index of blue-chip shares has gained 38 points to 7510 points, the highest since last Thursday, before jitters over Deutsche Bank triggered Friday’s selloff.

Oil giant BP are the top riser, up 1.8%, following a pick-up in the Brent crude price as recession worries ease.

Asia-Pacific focused bank Standard Chartered (+1.5%) are also in the risers.

Grocery technology firm Ocado has gained 1.3%, after reporting a 3.4% year-on-year rise in revenues in the last quarter. Average orders per week at Ocado.com rose by 3.6% to 381,000.

German discount chain Lidl was the fastest growing UK supermarket in March, Kantar reports, with sales rising by 25.8% year-on-year.

That gave Lidl a market share of 7.4%. Aldi secured a new record market share this month at 9.9%, driven by a 25.4% increase in its sales.

Kantar adds, though, that Waitrose saw its fastest sales growth in 18 months.

Morrisons saw a welcome return to growth with sales rising by 0.1%, giving it an 8.8% market share. Waitrose also had a positive period, pushing up sales by 2.1% to deliver the fastest rate of growth for the John Lewis Partnership owned supermarket since September 2021.

Asda’s sales increased by 7.3%, just ahead of both Tesco and Sainsbury’s on 6.9%. Tesco remains Britain’s largest grocer with a 26.9% share of the market, while Sainsbury’s is on 14.8% and Asda 14.3%.

Frozen specialist Iceland performed strongly, increasing its market share to 2.3%, up 0.1 percentage point as sales rose by 9.6%. Convenience retailer Co-op now has a 5.7% share and Ocado’s market share remained at 1.8%.

UK grocery inflation hits new high of 17.5%

Newsflash: British grocery inflation has risen again to a record high in March.

Market research firm Kantar reports that grocery prices surged by 17.5% over the last year, inflicting yet more pain on households who are battling a cost-of-living crisis.

This will have driven up average household bills by £837 unless shoppers shift their spending to cheaper outlets, or simply buy less.

Market researcher Kantar said prices were rising fastest in markets such as eggs, milk and cheese.

Fraser McKevitt, Kantar’s head of retail and consumer insight, says:

“It’s more bad news for the British public, who are experiencing the ninth month of double-digit grocery price inflation.”

UK Grocery Inflation Hit Record 17.5% In 4 Weeks To March 19 – Kantar

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 28, 2023

Kantar also found that customers are shopping around for the best value, visiting more shops than usual, and buying more own brand goods.

McKevitt says:

The supermarkets are also tackling grocery price inflation, battling it out to demonstrate value and get customers through their doors. This is a fiercely competitive sector and if people don’t like the prices in one store they will go elsewhere, with consumers visiting three or more of the top 10 retailers in any given month on average.

Supermarket store cards have emerged as an important way to provide value, and for shops to both attract and retain customers.

McKevitt explains:

Store cards have emerged as an important way to provide value amid the high cost of living with the grocer offering cheaper prices, coupons and points for people who scan them at the till.

Our latest data shows that more than nine in 10 of us have at least one loyalty card in our wallets and usage is on the rise.

Early retirement has forced up inflation, says Andrew Bailey

Phillip Inman

Phillip Inman

Last night, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said the wave of early retirements could force up inflation, leading to higher interest rates.

Speaking at the London School of Economics, Bailey said the exit of older workers from the labour force had pushed up economic inactivity.

That trend, he warned, will drive up prices and mean borrowing costs may need to be higher.

Bailey says:

If those workers have accumulated enough savings to sustain a desired level of consumption much like the one they had before their early retirement, at least for a while, aggregate demand will not have fallen by as much as aggregate supply.

We should expect this to put upward pressure on inflation in a way that would call for a higher level of interest rates to dampen demand.

The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has blamed early retirements for increased interest rates and inflation, The Daily Telegraph reports. pic.twitter.com/C5HN6mThSD

— Leave.EU (@JustLEAVEeu) March 27, 2023

Last week, the BoE raised Bank rate to its highest level since 2008, to 4.25%.

Bailey signalled last night that a further rise in interest rates remains part of the Bank of England armoury to tackle inflation, despite concerns that steep increases in borrowing costs has undermined confidence in the global banking system.

Andrew Bailey said the UK banking system was “resilient” and had high levels of reserves, allowing the BoE’s monetary policy to concentrate on tackling rising prices.

Bailey said everyone had seen “some big strains on the global banking system emerge” but UK banks were in a strong position, saying:

“We believe the UK banking system is resilient, with robust capital and liquidity positions, and well placed to support the economy.”

Referring to the regulator that oversees banks and forces them to maintain high levels of reserves, he said:

“With the financial policy committee on the case of securing financial stability, the monetary policy committee can focus on its own important job of returning inflation to target.”

Inflation is lingering much longer than analysts had hoped or expected, warns Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, following this morning’s BRC shop price data.

Food price inflation is particularly strong given the recent supply issues for salad and vegetables in the UK because of disappointing harvests in Spain and North Africa. When inflation takes its toll on consumer staples, those at the lower end of the income spectrum get hit hardest, exacerbating the cost of living crisis particularly for those in low income households.

But analysts do still expect inflation to cool this year, Scholar adds:

Although the official headline inflation figure remains in double digits, hitting 10.4% in February, the OBR is still confident that price pressures will ease throughout the rest of this year, heading back below 3% by the end of 2023.

However if March and April’s inflation readings continues to show persistent price pressures, there may be revisions to this rosy outlook, particularly if there continue to be issues around sugar production, vegetable harvests and energy costs.”

David Miles explains living standards are expected to fall by 6% over this fiscal year & next as inflation outstrips income growth

This is less than the 7% fall we expected in Nov but still the largest two-year fall since ONS records began in the 1950s#SpringBudget #Budget2023 pic.twitter.com/u08ZlD9Qb7

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) March 22, 2023

888, the gambling company which took over William Hill last year, says it has implemented a “rigorous action plan” to address the failings which led to this morning’s record fine from the Gambling Commission.

An 888 spokesperson says:

“The settlement relates to the period when William Hill was under the previous ownership and management. After William Hill was acquired, the company quickly addressed the identified issues with the implementation of a rigorous action plan.

“The entire Group shares the GC’s commitment to improve compliance standards across the industry and we will continue to work collaboratively with the regulator and other stakeholders to achieve this.”

UK’s William Hill fined £19m for widespread gambling failures

Betting firm William Hill has been hit by a record fine by the Gambling Commission.

Three gambling firms owned by William Hill are to pay penalties of £19.2m for failing to protect consumers and weak anti-money laundering controls.

The record penalty comes after the Gambling Commission found “widespread and alarming” issues at the company, which led the commission to give “serious consideration” to spending the firm’s licence.

William Hill fined a record £19.2m for failings in social responsibility and anti-money laundering. The list of transgressions is…quite something. The Gambling Commission considered suspending it’s licence (although obviously they didn’t). pic.twitter.com/Y9dhZByn4e

— Rob Davies (@ByRobDavies) March 28, 2023

Andrew Rhodes, the Gambling Commission’s chief executive, explains:

“When we launched this investigation the failings we uncovered were so widespread and alarming serious consideration was given to licence suspension.

However, because the operator immediately recognised their failings and worked with us to swiftly implement improvements, we instead opted for the largest enforcement payment in our history.”

The Commission found that customers were allowed to deposit large sums of money without the companies conducting any checks, the Commission said.

One customer was allowed to open a new account and spend £23,000 in 20 minutes without any checks. Another was allowed to open an account and spend £18,000 in 24 hours without any checks.

The firms also failed to identify certain customers at risk of experiencing gambling related harm, and didn’t carry out checks at an early stage in the customer’s journey. One customer lost £14,902 in 70 minutes.

Gambling harm is a serious issue in the UK; a study in January found that up to a million women are at risk of being harmed by gambling.

A second study, last week, found that gambling addiction rates may be nine times higher than the betting industry claims.

There were also some shocking failures to follow anti-money laundering rules, with customers allowed to deposit large amounts without conducting appropriate checks.

One customer was able to spend and lose £70,134 in a month, another to lose £38,000 in five weeks and another to lose £36,000 in four days

Fruit and vegetable shortages push UK food inflation to record high

UK households continue to be hit hard by soaring food prices, with annual inflation in British shops reaching its highest in at least 18 years in March.

Food inflation accelerated to 15.0% in March, up from 14.5% in February, new figures from the British Retail Consortium this morning show.

That’s sharply higher than the official CPI inflation rate of 10.4% in February, as prices continue to soar in the shops.

Shortages of fruit and vegetables pushed up prices, the BRC reports, with fresh food inflation accelerating to 17.0% in March, up from 16.3% in February.

That is the highest inflation rate in the fresh food category on record (going back to 2005), illustrating that the cost of living squeeze has not eased.

Helen Dickinson OBE, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, warned that shop price inflation has “yet to peak” – with rising sugar prices meaning Easter chocolate treats will be expensive.

Dickinson explains:

As Easter approaches, the rising cost of sugar coupled with high manufacturing costs left some customers with a sour taste, as price rises for chocolate, sweets and fizzy drinks increased in March.

Fruit and vegetable prices also rose as poor harvests in Europe and North Africa worsened availability, and imports became more expensive due to the weakening pound. Some sweeter deals were available in non-food, as retailers offered discounts on home entertainment goods and electrical appliances.

Prices of “Ambient food” – such as sauces, soups, preserves, confectionery and cereals – also continued to rise. Ambient Food inflation accelerated to 12.4% in March, up from 12.2% in February, a record high.

Food price inflation disproportionately affects low-income families (food makes up a greater share of their spending, as we all have to eat!), meaning that poorer households suffer a higher inflation rate than average.

BOE Governor says bank runs quicker in the age of social media

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned last night that the age of social media and digital banking is causing lightening-quick bank runs.

It’s a hint of what he may tell the Treasury committee later this morning, on the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (whose customers had rushed to move their money to other accounts once problems emerged at the bank).

Bloomberg has the details:

Bailey said one of the lessons regulators need to learn from SVB is the “speed at which runs can take place” given the technological advances since the financial crisis.

“It is striking that that happened very quickly — word gets around,” he said Monday in response to questions after a speech at the London School of Economics.

“This is very different from the Northern Rock-style queue outside the branch type thing.”

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that the age of social media and digital banking is causing lightening-quick bank runs after the sudden collapse of SVB https://t.co/qkhrI3hLZS

— Bloomberg (@business) March 28, 2023

Introduction: MPs to grill Bank of England over SVB UK collapse

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Fears over the banking sector may have eased this week, but policymakers are keen to understand exactly why several banks collapsed in recent weeks.

This morning, top officials from the Bank of England will be quizzed by the Treasury Committee about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank UK, and its rescue by HSBC two weeks ago for £1.

The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will testify alongside Sam Woods, the chief executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority, and Sir Dave Ramsden, the Bank’s Deputy Governor for Markets.

The committee want to learn more about the Bank’s actions to resolve SVB UK, and how the lender – which provided support to many tech start-ups – was supervised before its collapse.

They’ll probably also discuss wider stresses in the banking sector, including the impact of the failure of Credit Suisse on the UK, and what lessons can be learnt about the regulation of the banking sector.

Last night, Bailey insisted in a speech that the UK banking system was resilient, with “robust capital and liquidity positions”, and in a good position to support the economy.

The BoE governor told the London School of Economics:

We have a strong macroprudential policy regime in this country. With the Financial Policy Committee on the case of securing financial stability, the Monetary Policy Committee can focus on its own important job of returning inflation to target.

In a letter to the cross-party Treasury select committee published last week,Bailey revealed the Bank of England had warned US regulators over the risks building at Silicon Valley Bank well before its collapse.

Last night, the White House insisted the US banking system was safe despite stress on some institutions, following the collapse of both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and crypto-focused Silvergate, this month.

Asked whether the worst of the banking crisis was behind the country after failed Silicon Valley was purchased with the aid of a government backstop, the White House’s top spokesperson said Americans can be ‘confident’ in their banks.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters:

“Because of the decisive actions that we have seen … from our administration, the banking regulators and also the Treasury Department, the banking system is safe.”

European stock markets are set to open higher, adding to yesterday’s gains after First Citizens, a North Carolina lender, took over most of Silicon Valley’s loans and assets.

The agenda

  • 8am BST: Grocery inflation report from Kantar

  • 9.45am BST: Bank of England gives evidence to Treasury Committee on collapse and rescue of Silicon Valley Bank UK

  • 1.30pm BST: US goods trade balance index for February

  • 2pm BST: US house price index

  • 3pm BST: US consumer confidence report for March

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