Struggling Russia reduces number of aerial attacks despite counter offensive

In the face of recent reports of increased Ukrainian offensive operations, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have witnessed an uptick in tactical combat air sorties, particularly over southern Ukraine, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. But while the situation remains concerning, the current daily sortie rate of VKS is still significantly lower than the peak observed earlier in the conflict, the MoD said.

In its most recent update, the MoD said: “In the last two weeks, there has been an uptick in Russian tactical combat air sorties, especially over southern Ukraine.

“This has almost certainly been in response to reports of increased Ukrainian offensive operations, as the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) attempt to support ground troops with air strikes.

“Despite the uptick, VKS’ daily sortie rate remains much lower than the peak of up to 300 daily missions early in the war.

“Since the start of the invasion, the south of Ukraine has often been more permissible for Russian air operations compared to other sectors of the front.

“Over the last year, VKS has increased its use of air-to-surface weapons, such as glide bombs, which allow attack aircraft to remain well away from their targets.”

The situation in Ukraine remains tense as both sides continue to engage in offensive operations. The increased activity by Russian tactical combat air sorties adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation.

The MoD’s analysis highlights the evolving tactics employed by the VKS, indicating their adaptability and intention to maintain a significant aerial presence in the conflict zone. The use of air-to-surface weapons, such as glide bombs, demonstrates the VKS’s ability to strike targets from a distance while minimising their aircraft’s vulnerability.

It comes as Russian forces fired cruise missiles at the southern Ukrainian city of Odesa and shelled the eastern Donetsk region early Wednesday, killing at least six people and damaging dozens of homes, regional Ukrainian officials said.

In Odesa, three food warehouse employees were killed in a strike that also damaged homes, shops and cafes in the city’s downtown, the regional administration said on Facebook. Another 13 people were injured.

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Search teams were looking for possible survivors under the rubble of the warehouse, it said.

The attack on the port city, launched from the Black Sea, was the second in a week and involved four Kalibr cruise missiles, three of which were intercepted by air defenses, the administration said.

In eastern Ukraine, Donetsk province governor Pavlo Kyrylenko wrote on Telegram that at least three people died after shelling destroyed seven homes and damaged dozens more in the cities of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka.

Ten towns and villages along the front line in Donetsk were struck as Kyiv’s troops slowly advance, according to Ukraine’s presidential office.

A missile hit the Ukrainian-controlled city of Kramatorsk, where Kyiv’s forces are headquartered, killing two civilians and wounding two others while damaging 29 homes, the presidential office said. Russian shelling of Kostiantynivka killed one civilian, with 57 houses damaged, it added.

Ukrainian authorities continued to rescue people from the flooded areas of southern Ukraine’s partially Russian-occupied Kherson region following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam last week.

A total of 28 settlements on the Ukrainian-held western bank of the Dnieper River remain under water, and nearly 2,800 people have been taken to safety so far, the presidential office said, adding that the rescue effort was taking place under relentless Russian shelling.

The Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Kherson region came under artillery fire 57 times over the past 24 hours, the presidential office said.