Super Cup: East Bengal’s semifinal qualifcation scenarios and rules

East Bengal was held to a 3-3 draw by fellow ISL club Hyderabad FC. The Stephen Constantine-led side was to blame for their downfall as they squandered a 3-1 lead, which they held until the 71st minute. The East Bengal defenders cut a sorry figure by conceding twice late in the match to lose two precious points.

Following the completion of round-2 of the Group B matches, East Bengal is now down in third place with just 2 points in a four-team group. They are just above the I-league side Aizawl FC, who have lost both their games.

Hyderabad FC and Odisha FC are tied at the top with score points, while the latter lead by virtue of goal difference after they blank Aizawl 3-0. Odisha also salvaged a point in their opening game against East Bengal with a late goal from Nandha Kumar.

With only one team progressing to the semi-final stages from the group, East Bengal are the least likely to progress from the stage, as the qualification scenario gives them a long shot:

Aizawl FC is already out of contention because they can’t match the point tally of the top two teams in the group and leaves the remaining sides to fight it out. Odisha and Hyderabad FC have their fate in their own hand as they face each other in the final group match.

If any of the sides win that game, East Bengal’s title ambitions will end irrespective of the results of their game against Aizawl. However, if Odisha and Hyderabad draw, then East Bengal must win by a healthy margin to qualify as all three teams will be tied on three points. The rules in play and the subsequent scenarios under such circumstances for East Bengal to progress are as follows:

Rules for classification (descending order): 1. points; 2. head-to-head points; 3. head-to-head goal difference; 4. goal difference; 5. number of goals scored; 6. drawing of lots

– If East Bengal win by a difference of four goals, they progress: If all teams are tied on points, Order 1 and 4 will cancel out each other, leaving goal difference as the group decider. It will mean that East Bengal must beat Aizawl by a difference of four goals to surpass Odisha at the top on goal difference. This also means a draw is no solution for Hyderabad as they will be third.

– If East Bengal win by a difference of three goals, Odisha must play a stalemate: The two teams will be tied on goal difference under such a scenario while Hyderabad will fall short. The side that has scored more goals overall will progress, which means the lesser the Odisha score, the better it is for East Bengal.