All of the sudden, Mark Adams has his Texas Tech Red Raiders rolling in the Big 12. It might be too little too late as far as March Madness goes, but if there’s any conference that can help you make a case with a 16-12 (5-10) record, it’s this one. On the other side, Jamie Dixon’s TCU Horned Frogs have lost five of their last six games, but despite those struggles, they are still No. 24 in the country at 18-10 (7-8).
These are two Big 12 teams headed in very different directions right now, the Red Raiders are as hot as it gets and the Horned Frogs are hanging on for dear life to the end of conference play. The Red Raiders are favorites at home today.
TCU vs. Texas Tech odds, spread and total
TCU vs. Texas Tech prediction and pick
Another ranked win for Texas Tech could start to jump them into the tournament picture. Currently the Red Raiders are 51 in KenPom. The big surprise for a Mark Adams coached team is that they are only 64th in defensive efficiency and allow 68.2 points a game. This is usually one of the strongest defensive teams in the nation, but in their recent stretch of winning play it’s been stellar offensive play carrying them.
The Red Raiders have made a lineup change with Fardaws Aimaq in the starting lineup. He has only played seven games all year, but is averaging 11 points and 7.3 rebounds as their starting center. Prior to his emergence, they were much smaller, playing with four guards around Kevin Obanor most of the time. For the season they are 236th in defensive rebounding percentage, 72.3%, but in their most recent three games, all wins with Aimaq at center, that is up to 78.5% which would be top 20 in the country. That’s a very tangible difference in this team from when TCU beat them, 67-61, back on December 31. TCU had 14 offensive boards in that game.
Another boost for Texas Tech would be if Daniel Batcho can return from injury to further bolster the front court. He’s missed the last six games, and his injury is a big reason for Aimaq’s emergence. The Red Raiders have all the momentum right now and I like them as a favorite at home.
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