The 1 best (and worst) bet to make for UFC 280

UFC 280 features a main-event lightweight championship bout between Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev.

UFC 280 is one of the most anticipated events in MMA history. This card is loaded with interesting fights that will surely dominate the conversations of MMA bettors across the globe. FanSided is here to give you the best and worst bet on this card.

UFC 280 best bet: Mateusz Gamrot Moneyline (-195)

Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot will clash on Saturday in a highly anticipated lightweight matchup, that could have major title implications down the line.

Since suffering a knockout to Alex Hernandez at UFC 222, Dariush has ripped off an impressive winning streak of seven fights, in what many consider to be the toughest division in MMA. Dariush was scheduled to fight with Makhachev in February, however, that fight was canceled. This makes Dariush’s most recent win a victory over Tony Ferguson in May 2021.

Gamrot is on a solid winning streak of his own. He’s won four straight fights, with the most recent coming in the main event fight against Arman Tsurkyan at UFC Vegas 57 in June.

Dariush is a tough fighter to bet against. He uses his pressure grappling very effectively by mixing in solid takedowns with an aggressive submission game on the ground. Dariush does a nice job of mixing in the standup as well, proving on several occasions that he has finishing ability if the fight stays standing. The cherry on top would be that Dariush has a reliable gas tank as well.

Dariush matches up well against several of the top-ranked lightweights. However, this seems like the sort of matchup that will be a problem for him. Everything said above about Dariush could easily be applied to Gamrot as well.  The problem with this fight is that Gamrot is likely just a little bit better in all areas than Dariush. He has great defensive grappling, is a phenomenal scrambler, sharper on the feet, and throws heavy.

It’s hard to imagine Dariush finishing Gamrot, seeing as no one has in any of Gamrot’s last 22 fights. Dariush couldn’t finish either of his last two opponents, and Gamrot is a better grappler than both of those fighters. Conversely, Gamrot likely has more paths to victory and possesses most of the finishing upside in this fight. Dariush tends to leave his chin up in pocket exchanges and has been knocked out on more than one occasion. He will be coming off a long layoff against a dangerous, younger, bigger opponent, and that should put some hesitation in those looking to back Dariush. Gamrot inside the distance isn’t a bad bet either, but the best bet for UFC 280 is Gamrot Moneyline -195

UFC 280 worst bet: Abubakar Nurmagomedov Moneyline -165

Abubkar Nurmagomedov will take on Gadzhi Omargadzhiev in a welterweight matchup at UFC 280. Simply put, this line just seems off. Nurmagomedov has not shown an ability to dominate with grappling at the highest levels, and this line is likely a result of fans and gamblers associating the Nurmagomedov name with domination.

This just isn’t the case with Abubakar. Omargadzhiev is not necessarily a renowned grappler, but he has fought better competition. On top of this, Omargadzhiev normally fights as a middleweight. This will be his first 170-pound matchup, and he figures the be the bigger fighter in the cage. This is one of those spots where it just feels like a spot to stay away, but if you are looking for some action, go with the underdog here.

UFC 280: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev takes place on Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022, live from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Follow along with FanSided MMA for all your news and highlights.