Universal’s and Illumination’s Nintendo video game adaptation The Super Mario Bros. Movie continues to beat expectations and is on track to hit a $1 billion box office high score by the first weekend of May or sooner.
Official image from “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
I anticipate that the end of April, The Super Mario Bros. Movie will sit somewhere in the range of $950+ million. But we have to wait and see how well Mario Bros. plays against the arrival of the latest Marvel Studios blockbuster sequel on May 5th to find out if Mario Bros. will actually break $1 billion that weekend.
With South Korea, Japan, and Poland still ahead on the release calendar, The Super Mario Bros. Movie looks more likely to land at the higher end of potential, which is how it has performed all along. South Korean and Japanese markets see The Super Mario Bros. Movie arrive next weekend, the perfect time for a boost that will probably send the picture over the $1 billion threshold on the very same weekend Marvel launches the summer season with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.
James Gunn’s final chapter in his popular Guardians of the Galaxy trilogy is the longest of the series and apparently more somber in certain ways, based on everything we’ve seen and heard so far about the film. How that affects its box office performance remains to be seen, but it tends to mean less showings per day and less repeat viewing, particularly lately for superhero films from both Marvel and DC.
And Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 has added expectations in the aftermath of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s underperformance earlier this year. It may be unfair, but everyone will be looking to Guardians to get the MCU back on box office track and temper any concerns about Marvel or the broader superhero cinematic genre.
For now, all indications are a smooth launch for Gunn’s capstone widely popular and critically acclaimed Marvel project. I hope that remains true, speaking as a fan of the MCU, of the Guardians franchise in particular, of the superhero genre in general, and of Gunn’s work.
My early guesstimate sight-unseen (but I’ll be at the premiere in Hollywood this week and have my review for you soon after) is an opening in the $140-150 million range for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, but I’ll have a better revised estimate in my coverage next week.
A softer-than-expected bow or sizable second-weekend drop for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 would set off some alarm bells in the MCU, which would be music to Mario’s ears. Not that the Guardians sequel inherently inherently significantly hurts The Super Mario Bros. Movie’s own box office, but it’s an obvious draw on Mario Bros.’ main audience demographics.
This deep into its run and after such huge weekly holds, it’s not likely there’s that much more of a big family and animation audience left who haven’t seen The Super Mario Bros. Movie in theaters but still intend to. Repeat business is another area where the arrival of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will siphon off ticket buyers.
So the longer The Super Mario Bros. Movie can continue to overperform the rest of April, and the softer Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 holds, the faster Mario Bros. dashes across the $1 billion finish line.
But if the reverse happens and The Super Mario Bros. Movie finally sees more average or larger drops, and if Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opens even bigger than expected, then it will take a few days longer for the animated Nintendo blockbuster to nab a billion bucks.
I anticipate The Super Mario Bros. Movie will finish its run somewhere in the top 50 highest grossing films in cinema history, and somewhere in the top 25 highest grossing animated films of all time as well.
There should be no doubt that a sequel to The Super Mario Bros. is inevitable, even though so far Illumination, Universal, and Nintendo have remained mum about followup plans. Perhaps they are contemplating an animated Mario World spinoff series for Peacock streaming service, to maintain and expand the brand’s popularity while a sequel movie is developed. That would be a pretty smart play, and something too few franchises adequately take advantage of in the early stages of their branding.
For a final interesting bit of box office speculation, atop the rest of the records and chart-climbing Mario Bros. has already achieved, if a sequel performs in the same $1 million territory, this would become one of the top eight highest-grossing animated franchises in history as well.
I’ll continue to follow The Super Mario Bros. Movie box office performance through the week, and I’ll be back with additional information and revised projections on its billion dollar trajectory. Likewise, I’ll keep an eye on its placement in the 2023 box office race as the year progresses and more of the major contenders arrive in theaters.
So be sure to check back here again soon, dear readers, for more box office updates, movie reviews, and cinema news, including my review of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 with my coverage of its Los Angeles premiere and my preview of the film’s opening weekend box office expectations.
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