These underdog Home Run Derby contestants are worth a play

According to the oddsmakers, the 2022 Home Run Derby is Pete Alonso’s to lose. The two-time defending champion of the long-ball extravaganza, Alonso is the betting favorite with +190 odds to win at BetMGM, putting him ahead of Kyle Schwarber (+320) at the top of the board. Schwarber, playing in his first season with the Phillies, has the most home runs (29) of any player in the competition this season.

Juan Soto is the third choice at +600, just ahead of Ronald Acuna Jr. (+700) and rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez (+800). Corey Seager (+900), Jose Ramirez (15/1), and Albert Pujols (20/1) round out the field.

While Alonso is a deserving favorite given his status as the back-to-back champ (2019 and 2021 — there was no Home Run Derby in 2020 due to the pandemic), betting the chalk in an event that is traditionally a crapshoot seems like a bad idea. Unless, that is, you’re a Mets fan and just want some action on your guy. Then by all means, have at it. The past two betting favorites (Shohei Ohtani and Josh Bell) didn’t make it out of Round 1, while last year’s biggest long shot (Trey Mancini) made it all the way to the final before bowing out to Alonso.

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And you’re also better off ignoring the seeds, too. Every lower seed in 2021 advanced in Round 1 and in each of the last four years, the No. 1 seed was upset by the No. 8 seed in Round 1.

With all of that in mind, here are a couple of players on either side of the draw worth a wager:

Jose Ramirez (15/1)

A first-round matchup with Juan Soto is not ideal, but there’s no reason that the price should be this deep on Ramirez, who has just as many dingers (19) this season as the Nationals star.

While a lot of the players in this event are buzzworthy — Alonso’s going for a three-peat, Schwarber is second in the MLB in dingers, Rodriguez is the rookie phenom — Ramirez kind of just flies under the radar, which is kind of appropriate for how his career has gone.

He’s an incredible player, but Ramirez just doesn’t register on the radar for one reason or another with as much oomph as other superstars. There’s no reason for him to be this long when Acuna Jr., Rodriguez and Seager are all in the single-digits.

Corey Seager (+900)

Returning to Dodger Stadium for the first time since leaving for the Texas Rangers over the winter, Corey Seager should have the crowd behind him at the Home Run Derby.

As for bettors, well that’s a different story. Seager’s first-round opponent is rookie phenom Julio Rodriguez, so there’s a decent chance that punters will flock to the shiny new toy and ignore Seager. That should inflate his price in Round 1, while his comfort of hitting at Chavez Ravine should make him a threat to go all the way.