With the Charlotte Hornets reportedly focused on Alabama forward Brandon Miller at No. 2 overall in the first round of the 2023 NBA draft, the Houston Rockets appear comfortable in their spot at No. 4.
By most accounts, the Rockets could use a point guard, and the combination of Miller to the Hornets and French big man Victor Wembanyama going No. 1 to San Antonio means that at least one of the top two lead guards — Scoot Henderson of the G League Ignite, and the Overtime Elite’s Amen Thompson — should be on the board.
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As a result, Houston doesn’t appear likely to trade down when it can’t guarantee that one of those point guards would be available at a later pick. Similarly, they don’t need to surrender significant assets to trade up when they can get a top target where they are.
The Rockets also, however, own a second first-round selection at No. 20 overall (via a trade with the Los Angeles Clippers). There’s considerably more uncertainty with that selection, both in terms of who the Rockets might select or potential trades that could send Houston up, down, or out of the 2023 draft entirely.
Entering Thursday, here’s our roundup of where things stand and the considerations at play for general manager Rafael Stone.
All signs point to Amen Thompson being the choice for Houston at No. 4, with the Rockets weighing a big upside swing on the hope that he can become the type of connective guard their roster needs. While it may take him some time to adjust to the speed of the NBA game, his unique athleticism and passing vision should allow him to create advantages in the open floor.
Amen’s potential to become both a lead playmaker and a perimeter stopper could round out this team quite nicely. For the Rockets, Thompson’s upside seems to far outweigh the concerns around his jumper. His long-term ceiling is significant, and makes him maybe the most tantalizing risk-reward pick in the class.
Cam Whitmore’s hype train seems to be stuck in its tracks. The Villanova wing’s workout in Houston was more of an informal session, team sources said, compared to that of the Thompson twins. Sources were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record. The chatter about his stock sliding grows louder and while the recent national discourse has been Amen or Whitmore, the internal debate has shifted to Amen or Ausar, sources said.
Houston’s discussions about finalizing its draft board also involve the surprise scenarios — if a team jumps up to take Amen (Thompson), if one of Brandon Miller or Scoot Henderson is there, etc.
League and team sources say the Rockets engaged in conversations with Charlotte and Portland about the concept of moving up. But without knowing exactly what those teams are looking for in a return (and understanding it’s likely a substantial package) it’s unlikely the Rockets move up from No. 4, sources say.
For example, the only scenario in which the Blazers would reportedly trade the No. 3 pick would be for a package involving a legitimate win-now veteran, something the Rockets simply don’t have. For what it’s worth, team sources believe the Hornets are leaning towards drafting Alabama’s Brandon Miller at No. 2 over Henderson or trading the pick.
It’s also more likely, sources say, that Houston moves out of the draft entirely than moving back from the fourth pick. Teams have inquired about trading up with the Rockets, sources say, but it would take a serious haul of draft compensation or a combination of a great player and a future pick to warrant a serious discussion. There were different scenarios from interested teams proposed but Houston’s brass would prefer to draft high as opposed to moving back.
Conversations up to this point are mainly conceptual, but there have been discussions about potentially moving up from 20 to a range anywhere from the Miami Heat at No. 18 to the Dallas Mavericks at No. 10, sources say. Some iterations have involved the Rockets adding draft compensation, while others have involved their own players or the idea of taking on bad salary. Ideally, Houston wants to preserve their nearly $60 million in cap space for free agency. But given the abundance of financial flexibility, they could take on a bad contract if the upside of moving up was deemed worth it.
On the flip side, if Houston stays put and the players they like are off the board by the time their pick comes around, they would be more open to trading the selection altogether.
The more the Rockets have had time to evaluate and dive deeper into this draft class, the more impressed they have been with the talent level. It’s gotten to the point where they are more likely to select a second player than not but it’s more of an on-the-clock situation, sources say. As such, there are several players Houston is targeting at No. 20 — most of whom have gotten green room invites — and there’s optimism a few could still be on the board.
There is a chance to get the sort of prospect the Rockets have sought before. In addition to the deals Stone completed during the previous drafts, the Rockets also attempted to get a pick in the middle of the first round while targeting shooters.
Those deals were not completed, but there could be shooters available at 20 this season. Given the uncertainty in the draft, the chance that a player they covet will reach the 20th pick also could have the Rockets more hesitant to move off it until they see how things play out.
(Jonathan Feigen, Houston Chronicle)
Feigen projects Connecticut’s Jordan Hawkins — a 3-point shooting specialist — as Houston’s No. 20 selection in his final mock draft.
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