Top college basketball picks and predictions today (Best bets for Wednesday’s slate)

Wednesday’s college hoops slate has a handful of intriguing matchups with conference tournament and NCAA Tournament implications in play.

The best bets column is going to hit on three different conferences all with different outlooks as some teams are playing for the right to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, like Wisconsin and Vanderbilt, while others are jockeying for position in the AAC Tournament like Temple and Cincinnati.

Here’s three bets I’m on come Wednesday night:

For more college basketball bets, you can find them all on my betstamp here @ rw33

College basketball season long betting record

College basketball best bets for Wednesday, Feb. 20

• Temple +8 vs. Cincinnati
• Vanderbilt -2 vs. LSU
• Wisconsin ML vs. Iowa

Temple vs. Cincinnati prediction and pick

Temple didn’t have star guard Khalif Battle in the team’s 23-point win over Tulsa on Sunday, and it’s unknown whether he’ll be back for this one due to a “personal reasons,” as head coach Aaron McKie described it.

While Battle is the team’s highest usage player and takes nearly a third of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor, his impact is a bit overstated. The Owls score nearly the same amount of points per 100 possessions when he is off the floor and actually allow 10 fewer points per Hoop-Explorer, so I don’t think he the drop-off is as severe.

It also helps that Temple knocked off the Bearcats as small home underdogs in January (Battle only played 21 minutes due to foul trouble). The matchup is simply a good one for the Owls.

Cincinnati’s defense is built to run team’s off the 3-point line and force shots inside, which is where Temple likes to do their damage. However, they are capable inside as well. The Owls are a fine 3-point shooting team, 36% on the year, but are deadly from mid-range, top 100 in the country.

Cincinnati’s ball pressure does force teams inside the arc, and it defends the rim very well, top 20 in field goal percentage allowed at the cup. But what the Bearcats don’t do, though, is generate turnovers, the second lowest mark in AAC play. If the team isn’t able to turn over a sloppy Owls team (second highest TO rate in conference games), then this game can stay close throughout.

Temple is 8-3-1 against the spread as an underdog this season and Cincinnati has struggled to win with margin against the better teams in the conference.

The Bearcats have won six games by eight or more in conference play, but only one of those teams are .500 or better in league play.

Cincinnati has rode some hot shooting from the perimeter in league play, an AAC high 36%, but this is a Temple team that is strong defending the perimeter and funnels teams inside like Cincy does, top 50 in 3-point rate allowed this season.

If this becomes an interior battle, I trust Temple’s defense that has the second best two-point defense in the conference to keep this within a big spread.

I haven’t locked in this bet as I want to see where the line goes closer to tip and see if there will be some steam against the Owls with Battle out. At +7.5 or better I will be on the dog, but can’t hurt to try and get another half point or so.

PICK: Temple +8

Vanderbilt vs. LSU prediction and pick

Things have gone off the rails for the Tigers, who have lost 13 straight games dating back to the beginning of January. The team has been the worst in SEC offense per KenPom and their defense is allowing the highest effective field goal percentage. Now they host a Vanderbilt team that is playing its best ball of the season that includes a buzzer beating win against Tennessee and a road win against Florida in addition to its last second win over Auburn this past weekend.

Vandy has showcased the ability to shoot it from deep, ranking in top half of the league in SEC play at nearly 33% , and it uses enough off ball actions to unpack the compact LSU defense that is bottom 40 in the country in defending at the rim.

Keep an eye on Liam Robbins to keep rolling on Wednesday. The ‘Dores big man is averaging nearly 23 points per game with 10 rebounds this month.

Meanwhile, the Tigers’ offense has been a disaster all season, outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage and the team has the second highest turnover rate in SEC games.

I’m going to ride the hot hand of the Commodores and take them to continue their late season push to the NCAA Tournament.

PICK: Vanderbilt -2

Iowa vs. Wisconsin prediction and pick

Somehow, someway, Wisconsin continues to sit firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and the team is in dire need of a quality win. After losing by one at home to Rutgers despite leading late, and squandering a double digit lead to Nebraska on the road a week ago, it’s now or never for the Badgers.

Thankfully, the Iowa defense is on the floor for them on Wednesday night. The Hawkeyes defense is comically poor, especially of late, allowing the eighth highest effective field goal percentage in the country. The Hawkeyes are letting foes shoot 58% on two’s and nearly 41% on three’s since the start of February, per Bart Torvik. 

The offense has been the saving grace for Iowa, but the team isn’t shooting it that well from the perimeter, below 30% in their last five games. Against a compact Wisconsin defense that is strong on the defensive glass, possessions may be limited for the Hawkeyes offense and their defense will put even more pressure on the offense to perform on the road.

It may seem grim for the Badgers, but the team is ripe to get going against this leaky Iowa defense that is dead last in Halsametrics away from home rating this season, meaning the team has the biggest drop-off in production on the road.

PICK: Wisconsin ML 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.