The college basketball slates are coming fast and furious. Tuesday was awesome, headlined by Kansas State outlasting Kansas at home in overtime, and Wednesday has plenty of other notable matchups.
There’s a handful of teams in action on Wednesday that are desperate for wins (or are perceived to be) after slow starts to conference play. Is that generating betting value on that team in need of a win or the other way? I break down a few in today’s best bets column, so let’s get to it!
Make sure to check out my betsamp for any additional adds after this article is posted
College Basketball Record to Date
College Basketball Best Bets for Today
- Virginia Tech vs. Virginia UNDER 127
- TCU +2.5 vs. West Virginia
- Missouri -2 vs. Arkansas
Virginia Tech vs. Virginia UNDER 126.5
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Virginia Cavaliers | Odds by BetMGM
In the five games Young has been on the sidelines for Virginia Tech, here have been the totals between these two teams: 115, 106, 116, 104, 109. The two teams play methodical offense and sturdy defense that force teams to win from the perimeter.
While the return of guard Hunter Cattoor should boost a Virginia Tech offense that is shooting 28% from three in ACC play, I still believe the sheer amount of possessions should limit the opportunities for each team to push into the mid 60’s as this total needs to go over. Virginia is one of the 10 slowest teams in the country and Virginia Tech is outside of the top 200, per Halsametrics.
Both teams are reliant on cutting off the ball and spot-up shots, but each defense is built to stop that type of action. Both defenses are elite at shutting off the rim, top third in shot proximity allowed and top 50 in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. There are going to be plenty of late shot clock situations with the offense chucking up a contested jumper.
Neither team is going to push the pace and this will come down to defense, where both have thrived against the other since Young has taken over. I’ll back another under in this in-state rivalry matchup.
PICK: UNDER 126.5
TCU +2.5 vs. West Virginia
TCU Horned Frogs @ West Virginia Mountaineers | Odds by BetMGM
West Virginia needs a win after starting 0-5 in Big 12 play, but that doesn’t mean they are a lock to get one. They host TCU on Wednesday night and are laying over a bucket to a Horned Frogs team that I believe has the goods to make a Final Four run.
The Mountaineers have fallen off a cliff against a difficult Big 12 schedule, struggling to find sound offense, second worst effective field goal percentage and shooting a dismal 60% from the free throw line.
Now, they face a TCU team that are the only team that shoots worse than WVU from three, but get to the rim with ease and are far more efficient once there. The team has the second closest shot profile of any team in the country and are top 90 at finishing around the basket. These are two stout defenses, but the Horned Frogs are the far better offense with Mike Miles running the offense.
I think there’s more room for this WVU team to fall. This was a team that was a 1.5-point favorite at home against Baylor last week, who has been the worst Big 12 defense, and they couldn’t get it done, losing outright. I think the “desperation” is creating a valuable bet on the better team.
PICK: TCU +2.5
Missouri -2 vs. Arkansas
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Missouri Tigers | Odds by BetMGM
Two teams on a skid meet in Columbia, Missouri, and I like the home team. The Tigers squandered a double digit lead to Arkansas two weeks back, which is the Razorbacks lone win in 2023. Arkansas has dropped four of five after starting 11-1 as their perimeter offense continues to hold them back, now 34.1% in three-point percentage on the year. It’s even worse in SEC play, where the Hogs are shooting 23% from deep.
They face a Missouri team that has dropped three of four after losing a back-and-forth game at Florida over the weekend. However, I still believe this is a quality group that is primed for an NCAA Tournament berth. The team’s zone defense gave Arkansas fits in the first game and I believe that the Hogs lack of shot making is going to plague them on the road.
Meanwhile, Missouri is the best team at limiting turnovers in SEC games while Arkansas isn’t interested in generating any. The offense takes a ton of three-point shots (they shoot nearly 37% from three) but the interior should be there for the Tigers, who are top 10 at finishing at the rim against an Arkansas team that allows the 11th highest percentage of shots at the rim.
I trust the home team to get some revenge on Wednesday. While Arkansas comes in more well regarded from a season-long perspective, Missouri has been one of the best offenses in the country and has only lost to Kansas at home.
The Tigers are ripe for some positive regression back at Mizzou Arena.
PICK: Missouri -2
Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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