Top end of Raptors’ roster could return despite earlier suggestions of change

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We’ve been writing and talking about the impending change to the Raptors lineup since the season ended and Masai Ujiri publicly stated his disappointment with the roster.

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Certainly, part of that expected change was the dissatisfaction Ujiri had, but it was also based on the team’s financial situation.

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Friday evening at 6 p.m. marks the beginning of the free agency period and a month and a half ago we would have said, and did write, that a major shift was coming.

We’re taking that back now.

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All signs are now pointing to a team content to run it back.

If the Raptors do the expected, now, and bring back Fred VanVleet and re-sign Jakob Poeltl and don’t trade any of Pascal Siakam, O.G. Anunoby or Gary Trent Jr, the only other move of note this off-season will be a coaching switch. Out with Nick Nurse, who clearly no longer wanted to be here, and in with Darko Rajakovic, who couldn’t be happier in his new job.

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Yes, Gradey Dick is in the fold and brings some much-needed shooting to the roster, but there was always going to be some return from the draft, so that change was coming anyway.

No one outside of Ujiri and Bobby Webster and those inside the Raptors front office know for sure what impact that Siakam draft day bombshell had on any of these plans.

Siakam and his team let it be known through the media that any team trading for him should not expect to have his rights beyond next season when his deal is up. He and his team made it clear that they were primarily interested in remaining in Toronto, so whatever assets another team might be willing to give up for Siakam’s services now, they would only be getting a year of Siakam in return.

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Again, only a handful of people know if Siakam was ever truly on the trading block, whether Portland was willing to part with that No. 3 selection in the draft and whatever salary filler was necessary in exchange for Siakam. If that was in play, that was a deal that made sense for both teams for many reasons, but it didn’t make sense for Siakam, and he made that known.

Maybe there was even a deal in the making with Atlanta.

Ever since, the talk from around the league is any teams asking about Siakam or Anunoby, for that matter, are quickly being shut down by Toronto.

VanVleet could still be in a new uniform by the end of Friday, particularly if Houston decides to lay out $40 million a season for him, which they are fully capable of doing right now with a young and mostly under control roster.

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The Raptors, who do not want to go into the luxury tax in a season until they appear to have a team that is a championship contender, would be able to hit $30 million a year or thereabouts and still stay out of the tax once all their other business was done.

But the feeling, and this is only a feeling, in Toronto is VanVleet would remain with the only team he has ever known as long as the gap between what he can get elsewhere isn’t huge.

The team is heavily invested in Poeltl already having given up a first rounder for him at the trade deadline so it’s unlikely they would let him go.

Gary Trent Jr. opted into his player option, which means keeping him is affordable, if that is what the team chooses.

Put all of that together and the likelihood of the same top six rotation players returning is actually quite high, if not necessarily firm. Houston could still alter the plan by themselves with a big offer to VanVleet. Trent Jr. could still be on the move despite opting in. Ujiri could still get an offer for Siakam or Anunoby he could not pass up, but this all feels very much like this group will get a do-over.

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One way or another the bench though is going to change.

The Raptors have until Thursday to offer Dalano Banton a qualifying offer at which point he becomes an unrestricted free agent. If they make the offer, Banton is still a restricted free agent so they could always use the just over $2 million freed up if he does move. They can free up $8 million by Friday by releasing Thad Young.

As it stands now the team has 13 players under contract, have yet to sign any of the three two-way deals officially, although July 1 will see the signing of undrafted 5-foot-8 point guard Markquis Nowell formerly of Kansas State.

There’s also the issue of Otto Porter Jr. and his status with the team. He has this season and $6.3 million left on his deal but his first year in a Raptors uniform was limited to just eight games.

If he’s fully recovered from the surgery on his left foot, it would be like adding a new player to the roster given his lack of impact a year ago. At his season-end sit-down with the media, Ujiri told reporters he expected Porter Jr. will be on the roster this coming season.

But what was expected to be a very active summer in terms of roster turnover, is now looking like the only real change will come at the bottom of the roster, and, of course, behind the bench.

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