Toronto Raptors have slim shot at slim phenom Victor Wembanyama at NBA draft lottery

Article content

There have been some important NBA draft lotteries over the years — think about the anticipation for LeBron James, Shaquille O’Neal or Patrick Ewing — but Tuesday’s ping-pong ball extravaganza might one day be regarded as just as impactful as any that came prior.

Article content

That’s because the rights to Victor Wembanyama, a player regarded as the best basketball prospect since LeBron James are up for grabs this year.

Article content

One lucky team will instantly add a one-of-a-kind prospect who is now listed at 7-foot-5, 220 pounds, dribbles and shoots the ball like a guard and doesn’t turn 20 until January.

Article content

The Frenchman has been playing against professionals and holding his own for a while now and instantly can step in and change the perception, value and competitiveness of an NBA franchise.

A number of teams prioritized being in the race for Wembanyama over actually being in the race for the playoffs this season. Their Super Bowl happens Tuesday night in Chicago at 8 p.m. ET.

The Detroit Pistons won only 17 games, Houston and San Antonio just 22 apiece, but under the NBA’s recently revamped lottery rules each have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick. Charlotte (12.5%), Portland (10.5%), Orlando (9%), Indiana (6.8%), Washington (6.7%), Utah (4.5%) and Dallas (3%) round out the Top 10, odds-wise.

Article content

Article content

The Raptors could have been in this mix, but instead opted to try to make the play-in tournament (which they did) and the playoffs beyond that (which they did not) and ended up with the second-worst odds of landing Wembanyama of all the lottery teams at just 1%.

Toronto also has a 1.1% chance of landing the No. 2 pick, 1.2% of No. 3, 1.4% of No. 4, a 2.3% chance of moving back to No. 14 and a 92.9% shot of staying put at No. 13.

The Raptors only have won the NBA lottery once, using its 8.8% odds to move up before ultimately misfiring with the selection of Andrea Bargnani.

Stunning advances have happened before, notably Chicago in 2005 (1.7% odds, future MVP Derrick Rose), Orlando in 1993 (1.52%, Chris Webber), Cleveland in 2011 (2.8%, Kyrie Irving) and the Cavaliers again in 2014 (1.7%, Andrew Wiggins). So we’re saying there’s a chance, Raptors fans — just not a very good one.

Article content

The good news for the many teams that will be crushed to miss out on Wembanyama is that, unlike in some years, this is considered a strong draft at the top even beyond the big man. While next year’s draft has been pegged at this point as a bad one in waiting, the 2023 edition is regarded by scouts, executives and media pundits as more on par with the 2021 edition which yielded a solid group near the top like Cade Cunningham, rookie of the year Scottie Barnes, of the Raptors, Evan Mobley, Franz Wagner and Josh Giddey.

This year, guard Scoot Henderson and forward Brandon Miller are considered much more than just potential consolation prizes. There’s also forward Cam Whitmore and twins Amen and Ausar Thompson projected to go in the top 10, along with other intriguing prospects.

Some of the players are currently competing at the NBA’s combine, including rising Scarborough native Leonard Miller, who spent last season in the G League and impressed late in the year.

But make no mistake, Wembanyama is the prize. He’s a player who has gone viral many times because hoopers simply don’t look like him. Forerunners to Wembanyama like Kevin Garnett and Kevin Durant stood seven-feet tall at best. Neither of them were seen rebounding their own three-point miss with a put-back slam dunk as Wembanyama did a few months ago when he went viral yet again.

Article content

Wembanyama left home at 14 to start preparing for the NBA stage. He hasn’t disappointed since.The only risk is the same as it is for anyone that tall, can he stay healthy?

Yao Ming would have been an all-time great had his 7-foot-6 body held up instead of limiting him to under 600 games. Ralph Sampson, 7-foot-4, had a similar story, but others like Mark Eaton, Shawn Bradley, Manute Bol and Rik Smits had long NBA careers and Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Kristaps Porzingis, both 7-foot-3, have rebounded from a plethora of injuries earlier in their time in the NBA to succeed.

Still, last year’s No. 2 pick, Chet Holmgren, who stood 7-foot-1 and around 200 pounds when drafted, got hurt nearly immediately and missed the entire season while Greg Oden, drafted over Durant in 2007 as the NBA’s next great big man, broke down consistently before retiring.

Article content

Despite that history, there’s zero chance Wembanyama does not go first overall. And there’s going to be quite a party in whatever city lands him.

Who has a lot to lose if the balls don’t bounce their way?

Detroit has been rebuilding for a while and badly needs a superstar to add to former No. 1 pick Cunningham to revitalize a once-proud franchise. Houston has stumbled for a bit too. Dallas needs a miracle to keep Luka Doncic happy and only keeps the pick if it stays at No. 10 or moves higher. Otherwise New York gets it via the Porzingis deal made years ago.

Chicago (1.8% odds) needs to move into the Top 4, or else surrenders the pick to Orlando.

Check out our sports section for the latest news and analysis. Care for a wager? Head to our sports betting section for news and odds.