Two-thirds of 15,400 extra Australian deaths in 2022 caused by Covid, study finds

Comprehensive analysis of the impact of Covid-19 on mortality rates has found there were 15,400 “excess deaths” across Australia in the first eight months of 2022, or 13% more than predicted.

The excess deaths measure captures not only confirmed Covid deaths but also those incorrectly diagnosed and reported, and those from other causes attributable to the crisis such as health systems being overwhelmed, resources being diverted or fewer people seeking treatment.

The Actuaries Institute’s Covid-19 mortality working group estimates 8,200 of the deaths were directly due to the virus, with another 2,100 having it as a contributory cause and the remaining 5,100 featuring no link.

The deaths peaked in the last week of July 2022 and fell across August.

Karen Cutter, a spokesperson for the group, said all jurisdictions except the Northern Territory had “significant levels of excess mortality in 2022”.

“Generally, about half of this was due to deaths from Covid-19, with the exception of Tasmania that had relatively fewer deaths from Covid-19 and more deaths from other causes,” She said.

Cutter said lower excess deaths for Western Australia reflected the later introduction of the virus there compared with the eastern states.

With its relatively young and affluent population, the ACT had fewer excess deaths than the larger states, while the NT, also with a very young population, showed a low net impact.

While the number and percentage of excess deaths were higher in older Australians, the working group said it was notable there were excess deaths in almost all age groups and generally higher for women.

Covid-19 disruptions have been blamed for the lowest number of public elective surgeries performed in over a decade.

The number of patients treated over the last financial year on non-emergency waiting lists fell to the lowest since 2010-11, according to data released by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Dr Adrian Webster, an AIHW spokesperson, said public hospitals performed 623,000 elective surgeries in 2021-22, or 17% fewer compared with the previous year.

‘This followed periodic suspensions of lower-urgency elective surgery starting from March 2020, which have aimed to help ensure the health system maintains adequate capacity during the pandemic,” he said.

A reduction in elective surgery admissions was felt Australia-wide with the exception of Tasmania.

The largest decreases were in New South Wales (27%) and WA (23%), while Victoria experienced a much longer period of reduced activity due to extensive Covid lockdowns.