UCLA vs. Gonzaga prediction: Sweet 16 March Madness 2023 picks Thursday

Two years ago, UCLA and Gonzaga faced off in the Final Four in one of the most memorable games in NCAA Tournament history.

We’re down to the Sweet 16! Bet your horses for Thursday’ action at Caesars Sportsbook.

Those two programs meet again on Thursday in a rematch of that epic duel, featuring a few familiar faces and a host of new challenges for both sides in this highly anticipated Sweet 16 showdown.

Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s contest, which tips off at 9:45 p.m. ET. on CBS.

UCLA vs. Gonzaga odds

(via BetMGM)

• UCLA -1.5 (-110), moneyline -125
• Gonzaga +1.5 (-110), moneyline +105
• O/U 145.5 (-110)

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UCLA vs. Gonzaga prediction and analysis

If you compare these two teams based on a full-season sample, there’s a compelling case to be made for either side ahead of Thursday’s contest, which features arguably the best offense and the best defense in all of college basketball.

Unfortunately for UCLA, this isn’t the same team that won 29 games ahead of the NCAA Tournament with one of the best scoring margins (+13.9) in the country.

It isn’t the same team that ranks No. 3 in KenPom across the full season and ranked No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tourney.

That team featured superstar defender Jaylen Clark, who ranks third on the team in scoring (13 PPG) and boasted the nation’s eighth-highest steal rate (5.1 percent) before suffering a season-ending injury before the Pac-12 Tournament.

And without him, the Bruins’ defense simply hasn’t been the same.

Consider this: with Clark on the floor, UCLA was allowing fewer than 85 points per 100 possessions and was a whopping 23.7 points better per 100 possessions.

In five games without him, the Bruins have allowed two teams to score more than 100 points per 100 possessions.

And their five-point win over Northwestern was their narrowest victory since late February and just their 10th win by single digits all season long.

It seems clear: UCLA’s defense isn’t the same without its star defender. And that’s a major issue against Gonzaga.

For the fourth time in the last five years, Mark Few’s group ranks No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency – this time boasting top-10 marks in 2-point percentage (58.7 percent) and 3-point percentage (38.4 percent) with a paltry turnover rate (14.7 percent), too.

As has been the case for years, senior star Drew Timme (21.1 PPG) is at the center of it all, attacking teams with his elite footwork and physicality inside and setting up his team’s arsenal of prolific shooters along the perimeter.

This isn’t the most talented supporting cast of Timme’s tenure, but secondary scorer Julian Strawther (15.3 PPG) has an NBA future and is shooting 42.3 percent from three – one of five regulars shooting 36.8 percent or better from long range.

Let’s not overlook Gonzaga’s efforts on the defensive end, either.

The Bulldogs rank just 75th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Still, they held Saint Mary’s to its worst offensive efficiency (81.8) in the WCC Tournament final earlier this month and did the same to Baylor (85.8) in a 1-point loss in early December.

For as close as these teams appear on paper, that isn’t exactly what we’ll see in this epic Sweet 16 clash.

That’s especially true if UCLA starters Adem Bona (shoulder) and David Singleton (ankle) aren’t at full strength, with both carrying a questionable tag into Thursday’s contest.

With those two banged up and Clark on the shelf, it feels like the Zags should be the ones favored to reach the Elite Eight, making them a stellar play as a short underdog.

UCLA vs. Gonzaga pick