If you like controlled violence, you have come to the right place.
UFC 290 will kick off on Saturday from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the prelims beginning at 6 p.m. ET. on ESPN and ABC.
The massive UFC fight card is set to feature a whopping 13 bouts barring any last-minute cancelations, with stars littered throughout.
Unfortunately, Jack Della Maddalena had two fighters cancel on him this week already, including Josiah Harrell, after a live-saving MRI scan on his brain.
Many fights are heavily expected to end in a finish, with some +400 fight going the distance odds out there.
I expect most of these fights to be longer than the odds suggest.
You’ll see some of that strategy below as we go over the best bets for tonight’s UFC 290 fight card.
UFC 290
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez
A potential fight-of-the-year candidate hits the main event as defending champion Alexander Volkanovski matches up with the uber-talented Yair Rodriguez.
Rodriguez is rapidly improving as a fighter, showing off imposing, creative striking, and solid submission threats.
But he is undoubtedly in a tough spot against the seemingly impenetrable Australian fighter.
Volkanovski dominates fighters with his low-leg kick that cuts off his opponent’s mobility while managing distance at an elite rate and grappling when needed.
Most of the grappling exchanges should be won by Volkanovski, but when the two stand and trade strikes, Rodriguez will prove himself game while staying unafraid throughout.
Cardio makes the difference in this fight, as grappling becomes an important aspect of the game as the pace begins to slow.
As Brian Ortega learned, Rodriguez will have a tough time landing a submission win here.
Look for Volkanovski to win this late, probably in rounds three, four, and five, if you’re looking for juicy plus-money wagers.
- Volkanovski wins in round 3 (+1100), wins in round 4 (+1500), and wins in round 5 (+2000), all available on FanDuel.
Volkanovski wins in over 2.5 rounds is -139 on PointsBet, and that’s a fine wager for the more risk-averse bettors out there.
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
Another title fight steps up as our co-main event for this fantastic fight card as we get a rematch between Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja.
Moreno has improved rapidly since that fight back in 2018 and is the undisputed champ for good reason.
But Pantoja does have a win over Moreno, so there is that added bit of uncertainty.
When they fought in the past, Moreno surprised Pantoja with strong grappling exchanges ad his ability to slip away and back to his feet.
On the feet, Moreno rips shots to the body, and those skills have only grown since their fight several years ago.
Moreno isn’t the athlete that Pantoja is, though, and that could make things tough for the Mexican-born champion.
Looking at their recent fights, both fighters have found themselves in submission danger while simultaneously putting their opponents at risk of submission as well.
Moreno gave up his back multiple times to Deievsion Figueiredo and Brandon Royval threatened Pantoja with leg lock attacks before being submitted by Pantoja with relative ease.
This fight to end in a submission, either way, is +305 on WynnBet, which is substantially longer than the fight doesn’t go the distance (-112, FanDuel).
Both are fine wagers to target this evening, as we have a very live underdog spot where we could be crowning a new champion.
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Dricus Du Plessis vs. Robert Whittaker
Robert Whittaker comes into tonight’s fight as a massive favorite against the talented but cardio-lacking Dricus Du Plessis.
Du Plessis is going to look elite in the first round of this fight, and if this were a five-round fight, the Whittaker price would be reasonable.
But in a three-round fight, Whittaker coming in at -400 seems pretty wide, and the value side is probably Du Plessis.
But stomaching a wager on him is likely to be frustrating as he’ll flirt with demolition throughout the second and third rounds.
For this one, I’m laddering the time props, as we have in the past, and all odds can be found on FanDuel and Caesars.
- Fight starts round 2 -250 (1u)
- Over 1.5 rounds -145 (.5u)
- Starts round 3 +110 (.3u)
- Goes the distance +172 (.25u)
Dan Hooker vs. Jalin Turner
Jalin Turner is 6’3 and fights at 155 pounds – it almost seems impossible.
Sure enough, he missed weight for the contest, but that really shouldn’t concern us as a bettor.
Turner is going to have major advantages in grappling, and his striking is improving as well.
His price of -275 is a fine parlay builder as Dan Hooker continues to slide.
Hooker’s fight with Dustin Poirier is the stuff of legend and highly recommended viewing if you’re a fight fan.
He’s just not the bet for tonight and won’t be against any elite-level athlete or rising prospect looking to jump the rankings.
UFC picks
- Volkanovski wins in over 2.5 rounds -139 (PointsBet)
- Pantoja/Moreno doesn’t go the distance -112 (FanDuel) | fight ends in submission +305 (WynnBet)
- Whittaker/Du Plessis time props as listed (Caesars)
- Turner ML for parlays -275 (BetMGM)
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