Ukrainian forces may be able to fall back to a more “readily defensible, straightened front line” following the Russian capture of Lysychansk, according to the British Ministry of Defence intelligence update.
The report said: “Russia’s relatively rapid capture of Lysychansk extends its control across virtually all of the territory of Luhansk Oblast, allowing it to claim substantive progress against the policy objective it presented as the immediate purpose of the war, namely ‘liberating’ the Donbas.
“Unlike in previous phases of the war, Russia has probably achieved reasonably effective co-ordination between at least two Groupings of Forces, the Central Grouping likely commanded by General-Colonel Alexandr Lapin and the Southern Grouping probably under the recently appointed General Sergei Surovikin.
“Ukrainian forces have likely largely withdrawn in good order, in line with existing plans.
“The Ukrainian held areas of Sieverodonetsk-Lyschansk consisted of a bulge or salient which Russian could attack from three sides.
“There is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces will now be able to fall back to a more readily defendable, straightened front line.
“The battle for the Donbas has been characterised by slow rates of advance and Russia’s massed employment of artillery, levelling towns and cities in the process.
“The fighting in Donetsk Oblast will almost certainly continue in this manner.”
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