Uncertainty grows as Kenya’s general elections draw near – Premium Times Nigeria

Less than two months to the August 9 Kenya general elections, the political atmosphere is filled with uncertainty in the East African country.

In the elections, candidates will vie for six positions, namely: president, governors, senators, county women, members of the National Assembly, and members of county assemblies.

George Muhia, a human rights defender, does not expect the elections to be free or fair. He said the electoral umpire, “IEBC (Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission) is already favouring two candidates over the more than 40 that were interested to vie.”

Mr Muhia said the other candidates were not allowed to present their papers. He added that although there will be a change in leadership, power will remain within the same circle of people. “Violence is most likely to occur from the two camps of Ruto and Raila.”

Post-election violence

While previous elections were characterised by post-election violence, the upcoming, according to The International Crisis Group, promises to be especially bitterly fought.

Incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta is supporting his former opponent, Raila Odinga, thereby forsaking his own deputy, William Ruto, who was instrumental in Mr Kenyatta’s victory in two previous elections.

Mr Kenyatta had promised to support Mr Ruto, who is making his first bid for the top office. But he reneged and has thrown his full weight behind Mr Odinga and the Azimio la Umoja coalition.

This elite political friction is perhaps what informed Mr Muhia’s prediction that the elections will neither be free nor fair.

It most likely also informed Perpetual Kariuki’s fear of the youth being incited to violence. She pointed to cases of police brutality, extrajudicial execution and forced disappearance, which is still a problem in Kenya, especially in informal settlements like Kayole, Mathare, Dandora, and Mukuru.

However, Ms Kariuki, who works with Social Justice Centers Working Group, is excited over the involvement of more women in the elections.

“On a positive side, I am so pleased that more women and youth have come out to vie for various political positions, including human rights defenders. That alone has stood out for me because people are seeing potential and hope of having an all-inclusive government system,” she said.

Her optimism for an inclusive government is despite irregularities in the nomination of party candidates. “Party primaries in most parts were not done fairly, some aspiring leaders were given direct tickets, depending on their influence in the party or the current ruling government.”

According to her, Kenyans may vote for leaders who have no integrity, are corrupt and are on the frontline in cases of human rights violations but somehow get away with their crimes due to their power.

Presidential election and contenders

The presidential election, which is the most talked about, has four candidates. However, Raila Odinga and William Ruto of the Azimio la Umoja coalition and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) respectively appear to be the major contenders.

Mr Odinga appears to have an advantage over the incumbent vice president, Mr Ruto, as President Kenyatta has thrown his support behind the former opposition leader.

Mr Odinga is backed by a coalition of 23 parties with big names and acts, including Charity Ngilu, Gideon Moi and Nderitu Mureithi.

Although public views about Mr Odinga differ, he appears to enjoy the goodwill of Kenyans for fighting former President Arap Moi’s one-party system.

He is perhaps even more famous because of his choice of a female running mate who is also as prominent. “The Raila Odinga/Martha Karua Azimio ticket is my favourite. Both have been in the trenches fighting Moi’s one-party dictatorship,” a Kenyan communication expert, Wallace Gichunge, said.

According to Mr Gichunge, they are a stellar cast of the second liberation fight that ushered democratic governance into Kenya.

“They also have reformist credentials, are largely free from corruption baggage, and have prior experience in government. What is more, the ticket also strikes gold in terms of gender balance,” he added.

Martha Karua, Mr Odinga’s running mate, is a lawyer and politician. She played a key role in the expansion of Kenya’s democratic space and gender issues during the clamour for multi-party democracy in the early 1990s.

In 2013 and 2017, Ms Karua contested for the presidency and governorship, respectively. Although she did not win, she fought a good fight that has not been forgotten.

For Mr Ruto, there appears to be a negative public perception of his involvement with Mr Moi’s administration.

“The William Ruto/ Rigathi Gachagua ticket (Kenya Kwanza) could be the opposite. Both gentlemen were mentored by Moi during his 24-year dictatorship, and are largely beneficiaries of ‘the system’ with active corruption allegations/cases against them,” Mr Gichunge noted.

Despite being at loggerheads with his boss, Vice President Ruto remains resolute, building alliances. He is contesting under the UDA and enjoys the support of the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

His running mate, Rigathi Gachagua, is a member of parliament facing graft charges in Kenya’s anti-corruption court.

With Kenyans looking to elect leaders with a seemingly clean slate, the chances of the Ruto-Gachagu ticket are slim.

“My expectations this time around is that Kenyans will vote wisely and that they will consider voting for a leader that understands real issues that are affecting the citizens rather than a politician or party. I hope they vote for a leader whose integrity is not in question and has not been involved directly or indirectly in cases of corruption,” Ms Kariuki said.

The other two tickets, George Wajackoyah/Justina Wambui of Roots Party and David Waihiga/Ruth Mutua of Agano Party, are seen as fringe candidates and parties.

According to Mr Gichunge, “the other two are fringe candidates to fill up the ballot paper. One, Prof. Wajackoyah has become an internet sensation – after he presented himself as hyper-educated – more than 10 degrees in Law from various universities in Europe and Americas.

“He has adopted a Rastafarian public outlook, and his rallying call is to turn around the country’s fortunes through commercial marijuana. This has really lit up the internet and people are already calling him ‘The 5th’. It remains to be seen, however, how he will fare on the ballot.”

For Mr Muhia, the newcomers bring the hope of change when compared to Mr Odinga or Mr Ruto, who bring Kenya back to the status quo.

He also fears a “return of post-election violence and continuity of violations and corruption from the same leaders we have had in the last 50 years.”

Lack of trust in the electoral system

Mr Muhia also said the Kenyan electoral system is designed to keep the average citizen out, adding that the electoral umpire is complicit in the conspiracy.

“The average Kenyans are not to be heard in the conversations as the laws of elections do not favour their participation and also, the IEBC are always changing the laws even when illegal to favour a few,” he said.

Similarly, Mr Gichunge said, “another fear is lack of confidence in IEBC – they need to reassure the country and international community that they are well prepared for the big task through action.”

However, the vetting of presidential candidates from 51 to a final list of four is a confidence booster for the IEBC, he said.

Mr Gichunge added that electioneering in Kenya still revolves around personalities as opposed to issues.

“The fear is that voters will play their part, but the country will not change in terms of addressing major issues: for example runaway corruption. Another fear is widespread misinformation and disinformation and low voter education interventions which compromise their ability to make informed choices,” he added.

According to the IEBC chairman, a preliminary audit report showed that the current voter register had 246,465 deceased voters, 481,711 duplicate records and 226,143 voters registered with IDs that don’t validly belong to them. About 164,269 registered voters have invalid identification documents (IDs and Passports).

The chairman said the discrepancies should have been addressed prior to certification and publishing of the register. The register has been published.

“Kenya’s electoral institutions remain weak, in part because of the authorities’ failure to adopt all the prescriptions of commissions of inquiry that reviewed weeks of election-related mass violence occurring in 2007 and 2008,” the International Crisis Group said.

2022 Kenya election – what it means for Kenyan

The August 9 general elections mark 30 years since the introduction of multi-party elections in Kenya in 1992. This is therefore the seventh cycle of elections (conducted every five years) where several candidates representing various political parties/coalitions participate at all levels from local government to the presidency.

It will be the third general elections to be conducted under the ‘new’ Kenyan Constitution promulgated in 2010 which created two levels of governance – the national government (with presidency and deputy, members of parliament and members of the Senate) and county governments (devolved semi-autonomous governance units in 47 counties with governors, senators and county assemblies).

Mr Gichunge noted that “Every general election in Kenya heralds new formations – basically it is the same players who shift allegiances depending on interests and promises of access to state largesse once their formation ascends to power. In essence, we have a scenario of the same monkeys, different forests.”

Kenya has a history of post-election violence, but the circumstances are quite different this time. While ethnic tensions/hate speech is discernible on the social media platforms, there is minimal danger of violence during and after elections.