Michigan State’s Tyson Walker, right, slaps hands with A.J. Hoggard during the second half in the game against Ohio State on Saturday, March 4, 2023, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
230304 Msu Ohio State 156a
A pair of teams with obvious strengths meet up in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament when No. 7 seed Michigan State and No. 10 seed USC meet on Friday.
The Spartans earned the higher seed despite having a worse record and are barely favored on sportsbooks, listed at -135 odds to win.
Matchups like these can be among the most difficult to predict, but I don’t think that’s the case here. Let’s examine why.
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USC vs. Michigan State odds, spread and total
USC Trojans @ Michigan State Spartans | Current Best Odds
USC vs. Michigan State prediction
Michigan State (19-12) ended the regular season on a 5-2 run, but lost its first game in the Big Ten Tournament to Ohio State.
USC (22-10) is in a similar position, also going 5-2 over their last seven regular season games with a first-round Pac-12 Tournament exit against Arizona State.
Their styles of play, however, couldn’t be much more different.
The Spartans excel on the offensive end of the court, making 39.5% of their 3-point attempts (4th in the nation) and 76.2% of their free throws (37th in the nation).
The Trojans are strong defensively, allowing 67.3 points per game (81st in the nation) to go along with the 54th best defensive efficiency in the country.
USC’s strengths aren’t as off-the-charts as the Spartans’, though.
When you consider that Michigan State is so good at 3-point shooting and burying free-throws, it’s easy to see why they’re favored to win. Both of these categories are essential to have in March and it makes coming back from a deficit that much easier.
USC, however, doesn’t have the offense (outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting) to come back from a big deficit, or to win a shoot-off late.
I’ll take Michigan State on the moneyline at -135 odds and bank on shooting winning the day.
Pick: Michigan State moneyline (-135 odds)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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