Why A-levels are far from returning to pre-Covid normality

After a two-year hiatus, exams are back. With the usual coverage of celebrating students receiving their grades, a casual observer would be forgiven for thinking this is a return to normal for results.

It’s easy to forget the challenges faced by students receiving their results on Thursday. This cohort received teacher-assessed GCSEs, followed by a first year of post-16 study limited by prolonged periods of school and college closures.

With certain adjustments in place, policymakers agreed the distribution of grades this year should be set somewhere between pre-pandemic levels and those of 2021, when teacher assessments led to record high grades.

This represents the first step in gradually returning exam results to pre-pandemic levels, while avoiding a large drop in results for any one cohort. It was therefore a foregone conclusion that fewer students would achieve top grades this year, with 36% of A-levels awarded an A or A* in 2022 compared with 44% in 2021.

We know disadvantage and poverty were perpetuated during the pandemic, for example through unequal access to technology or safe and quiet places to study. Teacher-assessed grades in recent years may have masked these inequalities, but minor adjustments in this year’s return to exams will not account for the vast differences in disruption students from different backgrounds have faced. We cannot yet assess how students from different backgrounds fared in the results they received.

Female students continue to outperform males in most subjects. However, the gap between female and male students achieving top grades was less this year, likely driven by a return to exams; however, in chemistry and biology the gap was narrower than in 2019.

The proportion of students achieving top grades in independent schools was lower, but to be expected given increases in 2021. Further education colleges saw a much greater than expected decrease in top grades since 2021. This may reflect approaches to teacher assessment in 2021, greater learning losses experienced by these students, or the result of taking on students who would not usually have had the grades to access A-levels, but did so under the teacher-assessed GCSEs of 2020.

Differences seen in grades for students from different backgrounds will affect equality of access to university or other higher education destinations. During the pandemic, teacher-assessed grades meant fewer unpleasant surprises on results day, with students less likely to fall short of their university offers.

This year, teachers have had a hard time setting predicted grades, accounting for disrupted learning alongside new examination and grading processes. Given higher numbers of students applying, fewer and tougher offers than in 2021, and the 2022 cohort being more likely to fall short of their predicted grades, this year’s clearing process will be a highly competitive affair. Students may need to take a broad view when considering their alternatives, such as considering whether an apprenticeship or vocational route would be right for them.

We should also remember that students taking BTecs and other technical qualifications received their results. Indeed, your average 16- to 18-year-old is as likely to be studying other qualifications or taking an apprenticeship as they are to be taking A-levels. Our research highlighted that under teacher assessments, those entering BTec-style qualifications lost out compared with A-level students, driving a widening of the attainment gap between disadvantaged students and their peers to over three A-level grades in 2020. With A-level grades still pinned partially to 2021 results, we risk preserving these differences. Although some detail on BTec pass rates was published on Thursday, more information is needed to understand the impact on students.

All students receiving their results on Thursday should be recognised for what they have persevered through, as should the teachers and school staff that have supported them. While we’re returning to pre-pandemic style exams, the impact of lost learning may be with us for some time to come.