Why iconic Raptor Kyle Lowry will get into basketball hall of fame

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Is the man roundly recognized as the greatest Raptor of them all going to end up in the basketball hall of fame once he hangs up his high tops?

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Kyle Lowry definitely has a shot, and it’s only going to be enhanced if he helps the Miami Heat cap one of the most unlikely postseason runs in NBA history with a championship.

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Some might find that strange, since Lowry’s averages of 14.6 points, 6.3 assists and 4.1 rebounds over his career don’t scream all-time great, but to understand his impact you need to dig into the advanced metrics, such as value over replacement player, win shares and box plus/minus.

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There, you’ll see that Lowry regularly ranked in the Top 15 while a Raptor. Nick Nurse, his former head coach, lauded Lowry as the most competitive player he’s ever coached, which is a big reason why a player often the smallest on the court made such an oversized impact on games. Lowry also averaged 17.5 points, 7.1 assists and 4.9 rebounds while with Toronto, a club he led to the most wins in the Eastern Conference (and fourth-most in the NBA) from 2012-2021). He was the second-best player on an NBA championship team, and also has an Olympic gold medal as a member of the U.S. team in 2016.

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He’s in a lesser NBA role now with Miami, but has still had his moments in helping the Heat get this far.

Lowry’s a six-time all-star — that’s as many as all-timers such as Joe Dumars, Tiny Archibald, Pau Gasol, Tommy Heinsohn and Tony Parker, amongst others — and nearly every player with at least six all-star selections has made it in, or will, once eligible. No player with at least six all-star nods and a title has failed to be enshrined, so adding another championship would just cement Lowry’s case.

The only current member of the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame who played his most important years as a Raptor is Vince Carter. Lowry would be the second. The best player to ever suit up for Toronto, Hakeem Olajuwon, inducted in 2008, managed only a single season for the club and was a shell of his old self by then. Tracy McGrady, inducted in 2017, made seven All-NBA appearances only after bolting the franchise that drafted him. Kawhi Leonard, who had the best single season in Raptors history, will make it one day, but he has been a nomad.

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What might hold Lowry back from getting to Springfield, Mass.? His aforementioned numbers, for one. Plus, he somehow has made All-NBA only once, which is simply put, a clear air-ball by voters. Lowry should have three or four of those on his resume. As well, one good comparable, his friend and fellow ex-Raptor Chauncey Billups, has been a hall finalist every year since 2018, but has yet to get in. Billups won only one title, but he was the Finals MVP that year, made All-NBA three times and all-defence twice. That’s why a second ring would help Lowry out a lot.

A number of players of a similar class to Lowry, but minus a ring, are still waiting for the hall to call. That includes former Seattle high-flyer Shawn Kemp (three-time All-NBA, six-time all-star, four times in Top 10 for MVP voting, whereas Lowry made the cut only once), ex-Raptor Jermaine O’Neal (three-time All-NBA, six-time all-star, Top 10 for MVP once, when he was third in the voting), Amar’e Stoudemire (five-time All-NBA, six-time all-star, Top 10 for MVP four times) and Walter Davis (two-time All-NBA, six-time all-star, Top 10 for MVP twice).

For what it’s worth, basketball-reference.com puts Lowry’s hall of fame probability at 85.7% even without the second championship. They list Stoudemire’s probability as 72.9%, Kemp’s at 38.4%, O’Neal’s at 31.8% and Davis’s at 30.9%.

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Both LaMarcus Aldridge and Joe Johnson have one more all-star appearance than Lowry (and Aldridge made All-NBA five times), yet basketball-reference.com likes Lowry’s hall of fame chances a lot more as Aldridge and Johnson both get just shy of 51% odds of making it in one day.

The site lists only 11 current players with better odds than Lowry, six of them former league MVPs.

In other words, bet on Lowry being enshrined eventually. And expect a lot of Raptors fans to show up to celebrate when that day comes.

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