Why Moldova’s PM reshuffle is being spun as a show of strength

Good morning. Ukraine’s top western integration official has chastised those spreading “negative messaging” against its EU membership ambitions, telling the FT that while the process may be like eating an elephant, it is possible if you take it bite by bite (as any readers who have done so will surely know.) And congratulations to Nikos Christodoulides, Cyprus’s new president-elect.

Today: Moldova’s government hopes that the resignation of its prime minister on Friday is seen as a restatement of intent rather than a sign of fracturing support, says our correspondent. And my Brussels energy colleague has the skinny on electricity market reform lobbying.

Keep calm, carry on

For a country under huge pressure from Russia, the abrupt resignation of Moldova’s prime minister only a day after an intelligence warning about Moscow’s subversive intentions did not sound like reassuring news, writes Raphael Minder.

Yet President Maia Sandu and her entourage insist the government shake-up will not spell more fragility but instead more security — thanks to Sandu’s choice of her top security adviser and former interior minister Dorin Recean as premier to replace Natalia Gavrilița.

Most importantly for Brussels — where Gavrilița was meeting the European Commission leadership just three days before stepping down — EU accession efforts, including enacting necessary reforms, remain unchanged.

Recean’s experience also includes a stint as deputy minister for information and communication technology, which is helpful given his predecessor’s warning just before quitting about Russia’s “hybrid warfare,” from disinformation to cyber attacks and influence operations.

Although there could still be some minor switches in government, economics and foreign affairs are among the key ministerial portfolios that are set to remain in the same hands. Recean also pledged on Friday to increase “order and discipline” within Moldova’s institutions. “We are just getting a strong prime minister to replace another good prime minister,” says one government insider.

Like Sandu, Gavrilița worked at the World Bank before taking office, heading a government that was elected in summer 2021 on a promise of erasing corruption and steering the country towards the EU and away from Russia.

That mission, of course, did not include dealing with the painful consequences of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, and Gavrilița herself indicated that her resignation was also a reflection of the unexpected pressures she had faced, including a shortfall in domestic support.

The end came less than 24 hours after Moldova’s spooks hastily confirmed a comment by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he had told Sandu of a plan that Kyiv had uncovered for Russian agents to “destabilise” Moldova.

As such, the country thus remains another failure for Moscow in terms of rewriting the politics of former Soviet states. As Gavrilița noted: “The bet of the enemies of our country was that we would act like previous governments, who gave up energy interests, who betrayed the national interest in exchange for short-term benefits.”

Chart du jour: Wings of profit

Ukraine’s pleas for “wings of freedom” may not see fighter jets arrive in Kyiv soon. But the demand is helping the share prices of defence companies, with an estimated €50bn up for grabs in the next decade as European air forces modernise.

Power grab

Seven EU governments have set out how they think the EU’s electricity market should look, fearing a reprise of last year’s rancorous negotiations over the bloc’s gas price cap.

The document, seen by the FT’s Alice Hancock, was led by the Danes and signed by other northern European nations including Germany and the Netherlands. In short, mainly those that weren’t keen on introducing a limit on wholesale gas prices in December.

Context: The commission is coming up with proposed electricity market reforms, though many in the industry fear it should not be done either at speed or at the same time that the EU deals with its worst energy crisis.

The northern group paper outlines eight “key principles” that reforms should be based on. They include incentivising investment in clean energy, finding ways for consumers to benefit from cheaper, renewable power and making the EU resilient to “external shocks”.

It also notes “concerns” with alternative ideas already proposed by Spain.

Brussels has said it will reveal its plans next month, although owing to internal disagreements the consultation period has already been delayed several weeks.

Several northern European diplomats said they hope to speed through the reform before the Spanish assume the rotating EU presidency in July. Note: the last market reform took several years to complete.

“A fight is inevitable but let’s just hope there will be unity and a clean fight without bitten-off ears,” one EU diplomat said.

What to watch today

1. European parliament’s four-day plenary session begins in Strasbourg. Live from 5pm.

2. Press conference by Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg at 1pm.

3. Eurogroup finance ministers meet in Brussels to discuss energy and labour markets, from 3pm.

Now read these