Why the Mariners might repeat last year’s surge, and why they might not

The Mariners headed into Game 67 on Wednesday vs. the Marlins with a 33-33 record, which is about 10 highway stops ahead of where they were around this point last year. Remember, it was after Game 68 in 2022 that the Mariners sat at 29-39 and appeared locked out of the postseason almost three months before it began. 

Then came the stretch that shook up MLB, as the M’s won 61 of their next 94 games while posting a 14-game winning streak. It was a dream run in a dream year capped by a playoff-drought-busting Cal Raleigh home run on the last day of September. 

A surge that few would have believed could happen resulted in an unbelievable season. But can something like that be repeated? Because it almost has to be if the Mariners want to get back into the playoffs. 

Heading into Wednesday, they needed to go 60-36 the rest of the way to get to 93 wins, which would match the win pace of the Yankees (39-29), who currently hold the second and final American League wild-card spot. Not impossible, but improbable.

Before Wednesday’s game, I asked M’s manager Scott Servais about his team’s current situation vs. its situation at this point last year — and why he thinks this year’s club can make a similar climb up the standings. The skipper was candid. 

“Last year, we went on a magical run, and I think it’s unrealistic to think you’re gonna win 14 games in a row or go 22-3 over 25 games. Nobody can predict that or expect that to happen,” said Servais, whose team had won three out of four heading into Wednesday while scoring 17 runs over its past two. “What I’ve seen here recently is more what I’m used to watching in how our offense operates as a group and that gives me hope.”

But what specifically needs to happen for this team to get back to the playoffs? Or does the mere 23% chance fangraphs.com is giving the Mariners signal another disappointing year?

Here are the reasons for why the M’s will return to the postseason — along with the reasons they won’t. 

Why they will 

1. They (potentially) have one of the deepest starting rotations in baseball. It’s true that the Mariners 4.17 ERA among starters is only 11th in MLB. But Luis Castillo’s 2.70 ERA (heading into Wednesday) was 10th and George Kirby’s 3.24 was 22nd. The problem of late has been that Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller — each considered reliable a few weeks ago — have watched their ERAs shoot up to 4.38 and 4.06, respectively, this year. Gilbert finished last season at 3.20, and Miller was at 1.15 through his first five starts this season before the Yankees and Rangers shellacked him. Logic says those two — well, at least the established Gilbert — will find their way back to their previous form. And they have to. The Mariners’ season depends on it. 

2. Their offense is underperforming despite having nearly the same roster as 2022. This season, the Mariners are 24th in MLB in OPS. Last season, they were 13th. When All-Stars such as Julio Rodriguez (.853 OPS in ’22/.730 in ’23) and Eugenio Suarez (.791/.650) are dipping the way they have been, it’s not going to translate to wins. Again, the laws of averages say there should be an upswing.

“I think we got a better team than we had last year,” Suarez said Wednesday. “We just gotta put everything together, like we have the past few games.” 

But then, there’s the reasons …

Why they won’t

1. They have to play at a 101-win pace from here on in. Only one American League team (the Astros) managed to win 100 games last season. This is difficult for even the most talented teams, and the M’s aren’t that. The number of one-run games they won over the past two seasons — both of which resulted in 90 victories — were the most in MLB. What we’re seeing now might not be a hangover from their playoff season so much as it is a regression to the mean. 

2. The competition is stiffer. At least at the top. Ninety wins did it last year. That doesn’t appear to be the case this season — not with the top AL wild-card team (Orioles) on pace to win 101 games, the No. 2 wild-card team (Yankees) on pace to win 93, and the No. 3 wild-card team (Astros) on pace to win 92. 

The Angels and Blue Jays are also on pace to win 89. Pro golfers will tell you that a crowded leaderboard is more daunting than just one player holding a sizable lead. In the latter situation, they just need one guy to collapse.

Said Rodriguez Wednesday: “We have never lost belief in ourselves. We have been navigating through a lot of things good and bad, and we haven’t changed our belief. I feel like that’s why the team is going to start heading in the right direction.” 

They better get to it. Especially with road series between the Orioles and Yankees later this month.

The margin for error is slim, and it could be none in the blink of an eye.