Why Ukraine will continue to dominate the EU leaders’ summit

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Good morning. The EU’s leaders descend again on Brussels today for a regular summit. Our Brussels bureau chief walks us through the main topics and explains how Ukraine has once more emerged as the dominant theme. And Denmark’s foreign minister tells our Europe Editor that Nato’s leadership conundrum has been “solved” by extending the incumbent’s reign.

Committing to Kyiv

Today’s EU summit was until recently pitched as a moment for leaders to focus on the bloc’s economic relations with China, alongside the perennial debate over rising migration, writes Sam Fleming. 

But events in Russia have, once again, ensured its war against Ukraine has muscled its way to the top of the agenda.

Context: The attempted mutiny by the Wagner paramilitary group last weekend against Russia’s armed forces has given fresh impetus to the question of how best to support Ukraine in the face of its large — and increasingly unstable — neighbour.

We can expect to hear some bold pledges from the two-day summit — which will reiterate the EU’s “unwavering support” for Ukraine’s independence, according to draft conclusions seen by the FT. But the issue of exactly how far this backing for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy goes will remain unresolved. 

Among the proposals is a declaration, pushed by France, for the bloc to offer “security commitments” to Ukraine, helping the country defend itself and deter future acts of aggression. The promise is designed to send “a very clear political signal”, one diplomat said, to ensure the EU has a stake in the overall security framework being constructed for Ukraine.

But it has left some member states nonplussed, as they struggle to figure out exactly what it amounts to in tangible terms. The EU’s diplomatic service will be asked to come up with an answer.

Alongside that will be promises to provide “predictable and sustainable financial support” for Ukraine — following the European Commission’s proposal for a four-year, €50bn financing package for Kyiv. The member states have yet to land the details of the plan, which is linked to a contentious review of the EU’s long-term budget.

EU leaders will also ask Brussels to decide whether there is a way to extract value from the immobilised Russian central bank assets, with the hopes of using some of the profits for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Beneath their politely encouraging language on the topic lies a deeply divisive debate over the wider implications of such a scheme, especially given the European Central Bank’s firm opposition to the idea.

When it comes to domestic politics, the most highly charged topic on leaders’ minds will remain migration, as the numbers crossing — and drowning in — the Mediterranean Sea continue to rise.

Though many of the more controversial aspects were settled with a deal on asylum reform a few weeks ago, Denmark and others are pushing for “innovative solutions” to deal with arrivals to Europe — ie, more creative ways of sending people to third countries.

Chart du jour: Chinese invasion

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Chinese carmakers have crowded out foreign competition in their home electric vehicle market. Now, as demand for EVs in Europe rises, Chinese companies have launched an aggressive export drive that threatens to reshape the automotive market.

If it ain’t broke

Denmark appears to have given up hope of securing the job of Nato secretary-general for its prime minister Mette Frederiksen.

Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said the issue had been “solved” as alliance members are poised to extend the term of Jens Stoltenberg next month, writes Ben Hall.

Context: The former Norwegian premier’s term at the head of Nato is due to expire in October, by which point he will have been in the job for nine years. Nato members were supposed to agree on his successor at their Vilnius summit on July 11-12. But a consensus candidate has proved elusive.

Many alliance members favoured appointing a female secretary-general for the first time. But another Dane?

Northern Europeans have occupied the post since 1999, including Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former Danish prime minister, from 2009-14. And until this year, Denmark’s defence spending was well below Nato’s target of 2 per cent of gross domestic product.

“We are a pro-Nato country and our new government has increased the budget and we are willing to be a close ally,” Rasmussen told the FT in an interview. “We need an efficient Nato and if Jens Stoltenberg is prolonged as secretary-general it will be evidence of exactly that.”

In Vilnius, leaders will also have to resolve the contentious issue of how far to advance Ukraine’s membership aspirations and what kind of security assurances to give Kyiv before it joins.

“It is good news that at least one potential unsolved problem at Vilnius is solved,” Rasmussen said.

What to watch today

1. EU leaders’ summit kicks off in Brussels.

2. Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg meets Bulgarian prime minister Nikolai Denkov.

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