Xavier vs. Texas prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Xavier and Texas meet for the chance to advance to the Elite Eight on Sunday night.

The No. 2 seed Longhorns face the No. 3 seed Musketeers in the South Regional semifinals. Xavier has been paced by its elite offense in Sean Miller’s return to the program while Texas has a host of transfer-laden talent that makes them one of the most well rounded squads in the country.

Here are the odds for this Sweet 16 showdown:

Xavier vs. Texas odds, spread and total

Xavier vs. Texas prediction and pick

Xavier has benefitted from a relatively easy path through the first weekend, rallying to beat Kennesaw State in the first round in the final minutes and then overwhelming a Pitt team that was playing its third game of the week after advancing out of the First Four.

The Musketeers defense continues to be suspect this season, 152nd in raw defensive efficiency, and I struggle to see them slowing down the well rounded offense of the Longhorns that is top 50 in field goal percentage at all three levels.

While Miller’s group has an elite set of shot makers that is 12th in effective field goal percentage, Texas’ strong defense is going to stunt Xavier’s ability to get clean looks inside. The Musketeers are 37th in two-point field goal percentage as the team’s group of slashing wings are difficult to slow down.

However, Texas’ no-middle scheme is top 20 in turnover percentage and 57th in effective field goal percentage allowed. The defense is disciplined and will keep a lid on the downhill Xavier offense.

Even if this game becomes a bit of a back-and-forth affair, I trust Texas’ defense to get the necessary stops to pull away and cover the spread to advance to the Elite Eight.