‘Avatar 2’ Sails Past $1.7 Billion Worldwide, $500 Million Domestic

On its fourth weekend of release and showing little sign of slowing down, James Cameron’s popular sequel Avatar: The Way of Water sailed past $1.7 billion in worldwide receipts and topped $516 million domestically.

Declining a mere 33% this weekend, Avatar 2 looks increasingly likely to reach the $2 billion threshold despite initial doubts it would have the momentum to carry it to such a dizzying figure. But here we are once more, passing around servings of crow to naysayers who insisted this was finally going to be the time when doubting Cameron would pay off.

With an audience grade of “A” via Cinemascore and a 77% score from critics at Rotten Tomatoes, Avatar: The Way of Water enjoyed back to back holiday weekends for Christmas and the New Year, taking full advantage of kids out of school and parents and other adults on vacation. I ranked Avatar: The Way of Water among the greatest films of 2022 (you can see the full list here), and you can read my full review of the film here.

The result was enough early strong word of mouth and repeat business to lift the film over several humps, including a lower-than-expected opening, China’s box office suppressed by out of control Covid spread, a lack of release in Russia due to that country’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine, and a domestic surge of Covid-flu-RSV and inflation that slowed theatrical attendance.

Now, Avatar: The Way of Water looks unstoppable and has little competition for several more weeks. Even with school getting back in session and things returning to semi-normal after the holidays, the film should still enjoy plenty of high turnout and continued box office dominance until Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania arrives on February 17th.

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That is, unless James Cameron himself becomes his own competition on February 10th when Titanic returns to theaters in remastered 4K HDR and 3D, which will take up some of the premium cinema formats — IMAX and Dolby Cinema — that are currently providing great returns for Avatar: The Way of Water. I don’t think Titanic will put a major dent in Avatar 2’s performance, but it will certainly attract a decent amount of attention and attendance, and it will be interesting to see just how much of a hit the remastered 3D version becomes.

Elsewhere at the box office this weekend, Universal scored huge with Gerard Johnstone’s sci-fi horror comedy M3GAN, grossing $45 million in global sales. With a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score and a high-for-horror audience grade of B from Cinemascore, M3GAN is pleasing crowds and winning plenty of affection for its fun marketing approach. It was going to take something particularly stand-out to grab any attention from Avatar: The Way of Water, and luckily for everyone involved M3GAN proved up to the task.

A co-production between Blumhouse and Atomic Monster (James Wan’s studio) and with a modest $12 million budget, M3GAN is already a big enough hit to ensure a sequel, which distributor Universal has indeed already announced.

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When Peyton Reed’s Marvel Studios super-sequel Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania debuts in late-February, all bets are off as far as box office dominance. The MCU is using the film to introduce Jonathan Majors’ villainous character Kang the Conqueror to film audiences — he’s already appeared in Marvel’s Disney+ streaming series Loki, and will be the villain in the upcoming Avengers: The Kang Dynasty (2025), as well as likely appearing in the massive followup superhero crossover Avengers: Secret Wars (2026).

Marvel expects this latest Ant-Man and the Wasp sequel to propel that franchise to its biggest box office returns yet. The previous entry, Ant-Man and the Wasp, grossed $622 million in 2018, and the third film should easily blow past that number.

But for now, Avatar: The Way of Water still has over five weeks mostly to itself, including those premium theaters with their higher priced 3D tickets until Titanic takes some of those screens in five weeks, so expect to see plenty more reports about Avatar 2 scoring one big weekend after another.

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At this point, I expect Avatar: The Way of Water could cross the $2 billion mark by the end of January. If it actually continues to see small weekly declines even after families return to normal school and work schedules, it might hit $2 billion even sooner. Or, if the loss of vacationers results in more typical declines, it might be the first week of February before we see Avatar 2 topping the magic $2 billion number.

But as of now, I see nothing to suggest $2 billion is out of reach, and all signs point to an inevitable $2+ billion finish for Avatar: The Way of Water. I’ll continue updating you on the film’s box office, dear readers, so stay tuned and be sure to check back here soon for more information and analysis.