‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Charts Course For $1.9 Billion Worldwide

It’s smooth sailing ahead as Avatar: The Way of Water charts a course for $1.9 billion in worldwide box office this weekend, edging inevitably closer to a $2+ billion finish.

James Cameron’s sci-fi sequel to the 2009 box office juggernaut Avatar started strong out the gate in December and in just a few weeks has already amassed one of the greatest box office grosses in movie history. Still thrilling audiences around the world and flying past previous 2022 release Top Gun: Maverick as the year’s biggest release, Avatar: The Way of Water isn’t even close to done yet.

By end of business Thursday, Avatar: The Way of Water should sit somewhere around $1.78+/- billion as it heads into its fifth weekend of release, and will either top $1.9 billion or come awfully close to it. If it does top $1.9 billion, the next question is whether it breaches that threshold by enough to surpass Spider-Man: No Way Home’s $1.916 billion haul and take the #6 spot on the all-time global box office charts.

From there, Avatar: The Way of Water faces only those films with totals north of the $2 billion mark. Avengers: Infinity War sits in the #5 slot with $2.048 billion, and not far ahead is the $2.069 billion of Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens at #4.

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So with several weeks left at the box office before any significant competitors arrive, Avatar 2 should have enough time and momentum to carry it at least high enough to top Infinity War and enter the top five all-time grossers in cinema history. That’s a lowball figure, so more likely the Avatar sequel will enjoy enough sustained attendance to take the fourth spot from The Force Awakens.

Any higher, though, is more of a challenge at that point. Come February 17th, Avatar: The Way of Water will be giving up a great deal of its theatrical space to newcomer Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania from Marvel Studios. So making a run at Titanic’s $2.194 billion cume for the #3 spot on historic box office charts looks beyond Avatar 2’s grasp.

And keep in mind, Titanic returns to theaters for a brief run on February 10th in a remastered 4K HDR high frame rate 3D release, which is sure to push the colossal picture beyond $2.2+ billion. So it will be that much harder for Avatar: The Way of Water to lap it. And I think, at the risk of breaking the cardinal rule “never bet against James Cameron,” that a month from now Avatar: The Way of Water will have slowed and lost enough screens to new blockbusters, and will be unable to muster the oomph to keep chasing Titanic.

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But make no mistake, when Avatar: The Way of Water finishes its first theatrical run well north of $2+ billion and probably more in the $2.1+/- billion range, it will be a magnificent success giving Cameron three of the four highest grossing films of all time. It’s impossible to frame that as anything but a historic accomplishment for the filmmaker, although I’m sure certain contrarian corners of entertainment journalism will try to find a way to do so anyway.

I gave Avatar: The Way of Water a glowing review, and the filim appears on my list of the top 20 best films of 2022, which you can read here. Audiences obviously agree, and this time the film will also enjoy a lot more merchandising opportunities from toys to games to costumes, as well as shirts and glasses and all manner of other tie-ins generating tremendous additional revenue streams.

This all helps further cement the Avatar franchise’s impressive popularity and — yes, I’m going to say it again — its cultural impact, which in turn will ensure Avatar 3 and future sequels continue to perform at chart-topping levels. By the end of its run, Avatar: The Way of Water will probably have covered production costs for both itself and Avatar 3, with the way things are going, so Avatar 3’s inevitable massive ticket sales will mostly be icing on the cake.

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But for now, the focus will be on whether Avatar: The Way of Water makes it to $1.9 billion, and whether or not it threatens for the #6 all-time box office position. It’s also worth noting that Disney’s family of studios now own five of the top seven spots on that historic film chart (the first Avatar would give them six of the top seven spots, but of course that film released from 20th Century Fox before it was bought by Disney).

I’ll be back with further box office updates this weekend and next week, so stay tuned and be sure to check back soon for more, dear readers. And if you’re venturing out to see Avatar: The Way of Water for the first or fifth time, be sure to mask up and help protect not only yourself but immuno-compromised people and others around you as well. Remember, Covid and the flu are still out there, so be safe out there!