Marvel Studios has successfully ridden out China’s blockade against the MCU and finally secured releases for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania next month. This turn of events is excellent news for Marvel, obviously, and in particular means that Wakanda Forever gets a new shot at crossing $1 billion with its China release.
Dora Milaje leap into battle in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
The February release for director Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther sequel and the Ant-Man and the Wasp sequel ends a moratorium in the Middle Kingdom that has lasted since several months before the start of the Covid pandemic crisis that has consumed the world for the past three-plus years.
Typically, Marvel movies enjoy tremendous box office attendance in China and get a substantial portion of their total theatrical revenue from the market. That said, however, Spider-Man: No Way Home got to $1.9 billion without China’s help, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness topped $955 million while lacking a China release, and Thor: Love and Thunder became that franchise’s highest grosser among four films despite no release in China.
On the other hand, without China Spidey fell just shy of $2 billion, Doctor Strange missed out on a $1 billion result, and Thor could’ve otherwise finally breached the $800 threshold. Those might seem like irrelevant matters when the films still performed so well without the Middle Kingdom’s market and relatively low 35% (if not less) return of ticket sales to the studio, but the clout and added buzz it brings — to say nothing of a few hundred million in extra revenue — as well as sustaining Marvel’s reputation of consistently hitting higher and higher outcomes, is all important.
Currently at $837+ million, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever needs just $163 million more in global receipts to cross $1 billion. It’s questionable whether China can supply that much revenue for the sequel, in light of the first film’s more relatively modest $105 million cume in China. But a similar result now would be more than enough to get the Black Panther sequel closer toward $950 million range, and likely push it past $500 million internationally.
In fact, with the multi-year absence of Marvel movies, Chinese audiences might be particularly hungry for new films and just might turn out in even bigger crowds capable of delivering the entire margin for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to breach the $1 billion mark. Likewise, the one-two February punch of both Black Panther 2 and Ant-Man and the Wasp 3 could be a perfect box office combo that feeds on China’s appetite for MCU movies, with each helping increase enthusiasm for the other and working together to boost their revenue streams.
However, the imminent arrival of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and continued remarkable popularity of Avatar: The Way of Water (which will breach $2 billion this weekend) are more likely to pull audiences from Black Panther’s sequel rather than add to the flow of viewers, so there may not be quite enough audience enthusiasm to insure Wakanda Forever’s overperformance. Still, it’s entirely possible.
I can also imagine the studio choosing to do an Oscar season expansion of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever back into wider release again for a couple of weeks, to take advantage of the eventual inevitable increased buzz after Academy nominations (I’ve said from the start that it deserves consideration in many categories, including for all acting spots and directing, as well as Best Picture) and renewed entertainment news about Wakanda Forever’s arrival in China’s market to continue lifting its box office prospects.
While unlikely at this point, it’s possible that such a re-release could provide the final box office results necessary to propel Black Panther: Wakanda Forever into billion dollar territory. Either way, be it from China’s release or from an Oscar campaign re-release, reaching $1 billion would make the Black Panther sequel the first Marvel movie since Spider-Man: No Way Home back in 2019 to cross $1 billion.
In my opinion, if the studio ever was going to feel a movie deserved every shot at such a status, it should be Wakanda Forever. As one of 2022’s best films, it certainly deserves all of the attention and added success it receives. Right out the gate, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever did impressive business, receiving acclaim from critics and audiences who rewarded it an 84% Rotten Tomatoes and A-grade Cinemascore.
My guess is that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will hit around $950+/- million with China’s February release, leaving it just a few tens of millions shy of $1 billion. And even if it seems unlikely according to my brain, my heart and gut are working in tandem to try to convince me Marvel will see value in a re-expansion of the film into other markets as award nominations come in over the coming weeks.
Stay tuned and be sure to check back here again soon for more updates on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s box office and award season run, plus other box office, theatrical, and movie news and reviews.
And please remember, if you venture to movie theaters this weekend, do yourself and everyone else in the theater a favor — mask up, because the Covid pandemic is not over and we are experiencing a surge due to a new variant that’s more transmissible and which is sending more people to the hospital again while the death toll rises. That plus the flu are threats to anyone with compromised immune systems or other health conditions putting them at higher risk, so help protect them and yourself from Covid pandemic spread and flu by wearing a mask.
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